UH - THIS WAS WORKPLACE VIOLENCE |
Posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:02 AM PDT by LS
Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven't are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn't change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.
Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550
Total R dropoff: 49,270
Total NET D dropoff: 175,280
Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.
If there is fraud in Ohio, I’d expect it to be at the numbers level, whether the local poll watchers, the vote machines or tabulation machines, or at the compilation level at state.
I’d really like to see a law requiring ALL numbers to be forwarded at one time and no numbers revealed until all are forwarded. I want poll workers balanced by party, too, if they aren’t already. (Not just county committees)
This idea of different counties and different precincts forwarding when they feel darn well ready is just an invitation to fraud as they get to watch returns and judge the closeness of contests.
Try New York for starters. Cost of transport is not an issue for the Obama campaign, esp wrt OH.
And do you seriously believe that a voter ID law is gonna stop these people? It’s not that hard to get an ID or the required documentation.....
Obama won Ohio by a little more than 262,000 votes. He won Cuyahoga County by 258,000 votes 70% to 30%. McCain only lost the rest of the state by about 6,000 total votes. Without the dead rising from the graves every October in Cuyahoga County, the Democrats CAN NOT WIN OHIO! They KNOW IT! and so do the Republicans.
Yes, in the best of all world, all votes VOTED on one day and all COUNTED together with no numbers announced in advance or partially. But we don’t live in that world.
Also the closest area of NY to OH is the far upper northwest corner. Buffalo Niagara Falls area. That is two plus hours from Ohio. It is also passing through PA, which is now a swing state and as important, OR MORE SO, than OH. O’Bumbler loses PA he loses OH, MI, and probably WI and he loses outright in a landslide.
But it seems like such an easy law to make.
Which repub primary was it that dragged out so long waiting for results into the long dark night?
OK Jim, point well taken. I don’t doubt there will be massive and widespread fraud in OH tho by the RAT party. But you’re right, making up for a deficit of 100k votes is next to impossible.
As long as those absentees aren’t mostly fraudulent, imaginary people registered as Repubs (to complicate investigations) but voting for Obama.
So, if this is the case, if Romney wins Is by one or two points, it's a BIG victory.
Yes, you do (or are supposed to) show ID. If a poll watcher thinks anyone is double voting, you call the GOP atty on call and the ballot is immediately challenged. Even Dems know this doesn’t work very well, because if you stall too long in Dem-heavy districts, people get discouraged and go home.
“In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.”
Al Franken.
UH - THIS WAS WORKPLACE VIOLENCE |
Imagine the opsec required to keep this a secret.
I see comparisons to 2008 but no raw numbers.
I’m not keeping up with total numbers, except yesterday I looked at all counties for which we had both 08 and 2012 data and Ds down net 175,000 ballots from 08 in all ounties that had data. Obama won by 260,000, so already without a single indie changing a vote he is in big trouble. Statistically not insurmountable if EVERY remaining D turns out, but this seems to me to be the ball game.
I see what you mean: go to the website and add up the counties yourself. The data is there.
Do you at least have the 08 numbers so I don’t have to look them up?
It’s based on too small a sample to mean anything IMHO.
No, not by county. All I have is what is available on the site. However, for the most part, the counties that aren’t on there are not the significant vote rich counties. In this case, what we have is far more revealing than what we do not.
This year, as every election year, I’m most worried about Wisconsin.
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