Rasmussen Poll: 7 Point Romney Post-Debate Pa. Bump (More Pennsylvania poll tightening)

Politics PA ^ | 10-10-2012 | Keegan Gibson

[smoothsailing]

Rasmussen Poll: 7 Point Romney Post-Debate Pa. Bump

Written by Keegan Gibson, Managing Editor

Mitt Romney has bounced back from a Pa. low according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. He trails President Obama by 5 points, 51 percent to 46. But that’s a 7 point jump for Romney since’ Rasmussen’s previous Pa. poll, taken in mid-September.

Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely Pa. voters on October 9 via automated polling to land lines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percent.

It supports the narrative – reflected in polling nationally and in Pa. – that Romney is experiencing a noteworthy bounce since his performance at the first debate.

The Rasmussen results have brought Obama’s average lead down to an average of 4.2 points according to Real Clear Politics.

[smoothsailing]

PA poll ping!

[cicero2k]

(More Pennsylvania poll tightening)

If you're a Democrat, that's not the only thing tightening.

[Col Frank Slade]

RCP has moved PA to toss up status.

[Puppage]

If you're a Democrat, that's not the only thing tightening.

Or, ummm, puckering.

[smoothsailing]

Thanks for the headsup, I wasn’t aware of that!

[Beagle8U]

Puckering? A ten penny nail couldn't penetrate that Dem pucker.

[randita]

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!

[smoothsailing]

How true, if Pennsylvania goes Romney it’ll start a tidal wave sweeping west. The whole thing will be over by midnight!

[jazusamo]

Thanks for the ping. More Good News!

[Buckeye McFrog]

IMHO, Barry lost Pennsylvania when he took sides in the Trayvon Martin case.

No matter what you’ve heard about Philly, Dems win here because of blue-collar yellow-dog white voters who have been pulling the “D” lever since 1932 because “they’re for the workin’ man!”

And they are having no part of re-electing a President who has already signaled he has taken sides against them in a potential race war.

And to the extent that the Catholic Church has any sway over their flock on the birth control mandate, that really hurts him here too.

[Pollster1]

Interesting update on Rasmussen’s site:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

Rasmussen now has PA and CT as “leans Obama” states, where they used to be “likely Obama”. If Obama has to defend them, that will mean less money for the other swing states, and the Dems are already VERY low on cash. Ras has the following state-by-state numbers:

NC 51-47; R by 4
MO 49-46; R by 3
FL 49-47; R by 2
VA 49-48; R by 1
NH 48-48; tie
NV 47-47; tie
OH 50-49; 0 by 1
CO 49-48; 0 by 1
IA 49-47; 0 by 2
WI 51-49; 0 by 2
PA 51-46; O by 5
CT 51-45; O by 6

[SE Mom]

Looks as though PA may be trending as well as Ohio :D

[thingumbob]

Hmmmm.......

Sounds like RCP is holding something back about what they're seeing in Pennsylvania if that's where they see the race right now.

[smoothsailing]

Thanks for the post, very encouraging!

[smoothsailing]

I live in the SW corner of PA, so I appreciate your insight on Philly. I agree with you on the Catholic vote. PA is 29% Catholic, ranking 5th nationally, IIRC. If the Church can herd that flock to Romney, Obama is toast in PA!

[Road Glide]

“Mitt Romney has bounced back from a Pa. low according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. He trails President Obama by 5 points, 51 percent to 46. But that’s a 7 point jump for Romney since’ Rasmussen’s previous Pa. poll, taken in mid-September.”

Sorry folks.

Obama has been holding steady at 51% in Pennsylvania for a while now. Rasmussen has been polling 51% for Obama there for weeks.

Short of something totally catastrophic to the Obama campaign — something that will make the first debate look like peanuts by comparison — Romney isn’t going to win PA. He may get close, but he’ll still fall short. Of course, I’d enjoy seeing an “Obama catastrophe”, and I won’t mind if I’m proven wrong on this one.

Romney is going to have to find the electoral votes elsewhere. Ohio may become his “last stand”. He can get to 270 ev’s with Ohio, but without it, he loses.

Sorry for the pessimism.
I’m a realist, and that’s how I see it.
(I would say the same thing in reverse for any state in which Romney is already breaking 50-51%)

[smoothsailing]

I won’t mind if I’m proven wrong on this one.

It won't bother me either.

[jwalsh07]

It’s not a bounce, it’s a steady wind in his sails.