Ras’s old model was R +3.4
His new model is R +2.6
According to Ras, that is. I’ve seen nothing convincing that proves otherwise than what Ras says on his website. Nor can I come up with a good reason for him to publicize these numbers on his website and then do something entirely different.
We can’t assume his party affiliation numbers are the numbers he uses to weight his sample by party.
He might, but I’ve heard ad nauseam here that he doesn’t.
Too many assumptions on all sides, I suspect.
How in the hell can Rasmussen be using R+2.6 when he has Romney winning Independents by a significant margin, yet has the race tied? Only 3 weeks ago Rasmussen himself said D+2 to D+4. Cruising For Freedom just calculated that he is now up to D+5.
There is no possibly way for Rasmussen to be oversampling R’s and have Romney winning I’s by a significant margin, yet have the race tied! To try and argue otherwise is simple idiocy.