How in the hell can Rasmussen be using R+2.6 when he has Romney winning Independents by a significant margin, yet has the race tied? Only 3 weeks ago Rasmussen himself said D+2 to D+4. Cruising For Freedom just calculated that he is now up to D+5.
There is no possibly way for Rasmussen to be oversampling R’s and have Romney winning I’s by a significant margin, yet have the race tied! To try and argue otherwise is simple idiocy.
That’s because you’re confusing a base model with an adjustment model.
If the base model of a car dealer says he needs 5 Mustang Shelby GTs, but his local adjustment model says he needs 2.7 more, then how many Shelbys does he need?