Well that makes it completely clear why he is now using a D+5 turnout model. /S
He’ll say because the affiliation should be based on the last general election. He’s reluctant to deviate methodology.
In 2008 the election results pretty much matched the previous published polling. In as much, 2008 was a wild swing to Dem compared to 2004, I’m puzzled why polling matched results in 2008 if it was skewed Rep as it should have been. I’m still puzzled by this.
Am I missing something? Everyone keeps talking about Ras usinga D+3 or D+5 sample but what I see for September is R+ 2.6.
The R+2.6 is no big surprise. Very healthy. The R+4.3 always looked like an outlier.
Thanks. Been wondering when the new numbers would come out.
I am projecting at this point we will see a D+1 sample during the election (because despite this poll there still are technically more Dems than GOP who vote in prez races).....making me extremely confident that unless something big happens, Obama’s going down.
I believe even Ras’ D+3/5 model is wrong.
Let’s see... based on this Rasmussen study, there are more Republicans than Democrats. And every poll out there is telling us that Republicans are more energized than Democrats and that not only is Romney pulling more Republicans than Obama is pulling Democrats, but that now Romney is pulling in a share of Dems, too. Moreover, Romney is leading among Independents by a huge margin. Not only that, but though there are not many undecideds left, history tells us that most undecideds break for the challenger. Every one of these factors favors Romney.
So... why exactly does the Rasmussen Daily Tracker keep telling us day after day that it is a tie or a slight Obama lead?????? And why do we keep telling ourselves that Rasmussen is the one poll that is trustworthy?