Posted on 10/08/2012 5:25:42 PM PDT by Kaslin
As Americans are beginning to process Mitt Romney's lopsided debate victory on Wednesday night, the Republican nominee has pulled ahead in three crucial swing states, according to a trio of surveys from pollster We Ask America:
Ed Morrissey notes the slightly generous (to Republicans) sample splits in Florida and Virginia, although the Ohio partisan breakdown looks about right. To buttress this data, Rasmussen has released two new surveys -- his data shows Romney ahead by one point in Virginia (49/48), and down by a point in Ohio (50/49). But consider this item within the Buckeye State poll:
But among the stunning 92 percent of all voters in the state who say that they are certain to go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. And among the 83 percent who have already made up their minds how they will vote, Romney is ahead 52 percent to 48 percent.
So Romney's leading with those most likely to turn out and with voters whose minds are made up. How will the undecideds break? If this and this are any indication, Romney has solid cause for optimism. Speaking of which these revelations about Ohio's absentee ballot requests are very interesting, indeed:
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but the numbers are even more dramatic in Ohio’s key counties:
Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20-point shift
Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18-point shift
Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15-point shift
Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM – 6-point shift
Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM – 17-point shift
Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10-point shift
Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23-point shift
Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17-point shift
Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6-point shift
Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16-point shift
Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24-point shift
Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17-point shift
Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27-point shift
Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14-point shift
Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27-point shift
Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11-point shiftThe five largest counties in the Buckeye State have all shifted toward the GOP by at least six percent (and as much as 27 percent) since 2008. While the polls show Obama ahead in Ohio, these ballot request numbers suggest that Mitt Romney is in a much better position there today than John McCain was four years ago.
McCain lost Ohio by 4.5 points in 2008, after getting clobbered in early voting. These new statistics -- not to mention anecdotes like this -- suggest that polling models that project this year's electorate to look similar to 2008's (or even more Democratic) aren't likely to be predictive. It will be interesting to see if Romney's increased support is a blip or a trend. On one hand, bounces always fade, almost by definition. On the other, Romney did something quite rare in politics: He comprehensively shook core perceptions in one fell swoop in front of a truly massive audience. The New York Times estimates that between the Nielsen ratings and online viewership, more than 70 million people watched Wednesday's debate. To put that number in perspective, fewer than 53 million watched the first debate four years ago. This strikes me as additional evidence that the American people haven't gotten the memo that this election is over; it also casts further doubt on pollsters' predictions of the eventual partisan turnout. By the way, how apoplectic are Obama supporters over the debate? They're dreaming up pitiful conspiracy theories about Romney "cheating," and whining about how unfair it was that their guy wasn't allowed to bring his best friend up on stage with him. Seriously, click that link and watch the compilation of idiocy. Unreal.
Moving forward, the superficially "good" jobs report will help Obama a little bit, but you can expect Romney and company to keep explaining why today's numbers are nothing to celebrate. Case in point: The "real" U-6 rate is stuck at 14.7 percent, unchanged from last month. Plus, there's the workforce participation and sluggish start-ups stuff. I also wonder if any benefit Obama could accrue from "7.8 percent" unemployment will get wiped out on Monday when Newsweek drops its big expose about Obama For America accepting illegal foreign contributions. Team Obama raised $150 million last month, a new record. How much of that came from illegal overseas donors? Stay tuned. In the meantime, Romney's keeping the pedal to the metal. For your edification, I've embedded three new ads from Team Romney (the last two of which are state-specific, and the first of which is outstanding), as well as video of last night's Romney/Ryan rally in Virginia, which reportedly drew 15,000 supporters:
Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan Campaign rally in Fishersville, VA - October 4 2012
Do you think Republicans are stoked over Mitt's debate performance? Scroll ahead to the 21:38 mark. Enthusiasms.
UPDATE - New Florida poll: Romney 49, Obama 47.
UPDATE II - These indications of shifting Hispanic votes in swing states could be quite important.
Have the fake job numbers kicked in yet for Obumblers poll? If not I’m afraid tomorrow’s Rasmussen polls will tell a different story. I’m a bit nervous over those numbers. Any one care to make a prediction what they’ll be??
No one but a committed lefty defending Obama is remotely satisfied with the employment rate. The data is terrible, and systemic.
I don't believe that anybody who isn't already drinking the Kool-Aid would be the least impressed by that jobs report its farcical 7.8%
WOW
Look at Gary Johnson...
Hes on wvwry ballot...
Who is he taking votes from ???
Obama or Willard ???
We also have Virgil Goode and Rocky Anderson on our TN ballot...
besides a couple of others...
I accidentally got led to a Daily Kos article today. They are saying the momentum has stopped for Romney. While WeAskAmerica is I believe a GOP outfit, this would go against their desperate thinking.
At least one poll indicated Johnson is about evenly split, maybe slightly more from Obama.
Look at Gary Johnson...
Hes on wvwry ballot...
We also have Virgil Goode and Rocky Anderson on our TN ballot... besides a couple of others...
I live in Ohio. With the whole coal thing, I simply can’t understand how anyone in Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Kentucky could vote for him, period. He has vowed to destroy our way of life.
The only people I've seen locally who believe the numbers and are enthusiastic about them are lefty activists.
VA Ping!
If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!
I find that utterly amazing. Four years ago, "Obama-mania" was at it's zenith, yet we somehow had 17 million MORE people watching the first debate this year! What does that tell you about GOP enthusiasm!
The first debate in 2008 (also moderated by Jim Lehrer) was a trainwreck for the GOP. If you remember, McCain tried to bail on the debate, claiming that he had to be in Washington to deal with the financial crisis (he had actually suspended his campaign!) but reluctantly showed up once it became clear that Obama was going to be there with or without him.
The debate itself was an unmemorable snoozefest with no clear winner though of course the adoring media proclaimed Obama as the winner while McCain grinned and agreed that Obama was a nice guy and that the American people need not fear him being the president.
I guess Obama was also expecting Mitt Romney to submissively roll over and lick his shoes like McCain did. Well Obama was wrong and 70 million Americans got to see him finally put in his place.
Another poll post, just last week.....
My husband and I were in Virginia over the week end (we are from NY) on a road trip to visit our 3L daughter at W &L in Lexington, VA.
We took some scenic routes off the four lane (Natural Bridge, Luray, etc.) and saw many large pro Romney signs - no pro Obama yard signs, and just 2 Obama bumper stickers. In the Shenendoah Valley it appears that the motivated enthusiastic voters are pro Romney. Romney was speaking at VMI yesterday, the day were left, and there was no evidence of an anti Romney rally that we could see.
The Move on Thugs in Ohio are apparently in full panic. Below is an email begging for money for Ohio and a couple of other states.
Dear MoveOn member,
There’s breaking news from Ohio. And it’s not good.
For months, shady outside groups have flooded the Ohio airwaves with almost $20 million in ads targeting Sen. Sherrod Brown.1
And for months, he’s withstood the onslaught, holding on to a six or seven-point lead.2
But this weekend, two new polls came out—one showing a tied race and the other showing Sherrod down four.3
This is, in a word, unacceptable.
Sherrod Brown is a fearless fighter for working people who has taken Wall Street head on, and now he’s paying the price. We can’t let Karl Rove and his big money backers win this one. We cannot let it happen. Can you donate to make sure we keep Sherrod in the Senate?
Yes, I’ll donate $5 to win in Ohio.
Senator Brown isn’t the only progressive who’s facing an onslaught of big money this year.
In Wisconsin, conservative Super PACs are hitting Tammy Baldwin after polls show her taking a small lead over her opponent.4
Tammy’s another great progressive, who led the fight in the House for the Buffett Rule—to make millionaires pay their fair share.5
Her opponent, Tommy Thompson, on the other hand, has spent years working for a D.C. lobbying firm fighting for special interests.
In Connecticut, it’s not outside money that’s the problem. It’s Republican Linda McMahon’s almost unlimited personal wealth. She spent $50 million on her failed Senate bid in 2010 and has already spent more than $13 million this year.6
But Chris Murphy’s values—fighting for campaign finance reform and quality health care—are much more in line with Connecticut’s voters’, and he’s opened a small lead.
These are races we have to win. But Tammy, Sherrod, and Chris need our help.
Click below to chip in $5:
https://pol.moveon.org/2012c/give/sherrod_brown.html?aa=5&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=3
Thanks for all you do.
–Daniel, Levana, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. “Incumbent Sherrod Brown holds lead over Josh Mandel in Ohio’s hotly contested U.S. Senate battle: The Ohio Newspaper Poll,” The Plain Dealer, September 24, 2012
2. “OH Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282155&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=4
3. “Polling Memorandum,” Wenzel Strategies, October 6, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282156&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=5
“Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 46%, Mandel (R) 46%,” Rasmussen Reports, October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282157&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=6
4. “WI Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281166&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=7
5. “The Buffett Rule (Paying a Fair Share Act),” website of Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281167&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=8
“Tammy Baldwin To Introduce Resolution Opposing Immunity For Banks In Foreclosure Deal,” The Huffington Post, November 3, 2011
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281531&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=9
6. “Total Raised and Spent—2010 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281160&id=&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=10
“Total Raised and Spent—2012 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281161&id=&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=11
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.