Posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:45 PM PDT by dialup_pundit
When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote...
Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.
Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100512-628435-polls-show-obama-could-lose-illinois.htm#ixzz28X8nPjpF
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.
Slowly the poll misleading strategy of Dems is fading.
What are the rules of Obama keeping his campaign money? Didn’t Buchanan do this? Be a nice Hawaii house.
More shooting murders.
Unemployment catastrophically high.
Teacher Union marxism displyed only recently.
Now a wholesome mid-westerner is running the Repub ticket as VP, showing that the mid-west can be different.
Chicago may finally be tiring of their decades-long tribulations.
He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!
“He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!”
Granted, I am in Orange County, California but I have seen many more Mitt signs than Obama signs including cars.
Likely? Yes. Done deal? No.
Voter registration in Chicago is down. Voter interest is down as well. Blacks will vote for the O overwhelmingly again, but the numbers likely won't be as large this year as '08. The same for democrats in general. If this holds true and if the GOP does well in collar counties and downstate, it could be an interesting night here in Illinois.
It would be hilarious if Obama won only HI, MA, and VT.
While I still think we will be looking a very close election night, it’s numbers like this that make the notion of a Romney landslide seem at least possible. From what I’ve read, the IL-10 is a swing district, with a history of electing moderate-to-liberal Republicans (Mark Kirk, Dord, etc.) to Congress and being close when it comes to Presidential elections (2008 being a notable exception).
If Obama is losing those folks in Illinois, chances are he is losing similar groups in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and other battleground states.
When and IF Biden endorse Romney-—then all bets are off.
Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004 respectively.
"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20 points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor, but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also taking its toll."
The Republican Jewish Coalition, which is the major organization working the Jewish community for Romney, has been targeting Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Illinois has been one of the states with significant Jewish populations which is being essentially ignored as a hopeless cause. Smart or foolish?
One other point: Hard to get a handle on the accuracy of these numbers by congressional district because the districts are all redrawn.
OTOH Mitt is going to lose his state so I’m not sure how this affects the chances of either candidate.
I worked for Nixon-Lodge Campaign in 1959-60, and until all the dead/illegal/bussed-in Cook Cty votes were counted for JFK, we were comfortably ahead in Illinois. Somehow, Mayor Daley always managed to come-up with just enough votes to win every election for decades. Not much has changed. “The Machine” there, is quite corrupt, criminal and formidable.
This time I didn't see a single one.
If anyone out there has a spare $1 billion they’d like to use to set up a Super PAC, this would be an interesting experiment...however, not really worth it to divert any current resources away from the key battlegrounds for the main campaign orgs. Still...Donald Trump - you out there?
I wouldn't bank on it. I have family in Naperville, which is part of DuPage County just outside Chicago. I visit there about once a year. In 2008, the Obama signs were everywhere and he took the county by a 55-44 margin. (In 2004, Bush won by about the same margin.)
Not this year. My family reports that Romney signs are popping up like weeds and nary an Obama sign is to be found. There are a million people in DuPage Country and Romney is likely to win there by double digits (as Bush/Cheney did in 2004).
I'm not predicting that Romney will win statewide but I'm certainly not ruling it out and we shouldn't write it off.
the obamanation cannot lose illinois, “the land of Lincoln”. I can guarantee that every rat and dead pub will rise from the grave and vote that it will never happen.
illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. run by the mafia.
blessings, bobo
In the least that will help the GOP hold more of the House seats than previously expected due to the redistricting skewed so heavily for the Dems.
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