Likely? Yes. Done deal? No.
Voter registration in Chicago is down. Voter interest is down as well. Blacks will vote for the O overwhelmingly again, but the numbers likely won't be as large this year as '08. The same for democrats in general. If this holds true and if the GOP does well in collar counties and downstate, it could be an interesting night here in Illinois.
Voter registration for democrats is down just over 225,000 voters. (I think all two Republican's in Chicago are still registered however.)