The "dirty trick" of having Dems register as Rs in an "Operation Chaos" overlooks one teeny point : the numbers we see are all going the same way, even in heavily R counties. You might explain that Ds are down in Franklin, but that on election dat they will "really" go back home but hat wouldn't explain higher R turnout in counties that were redder in 04, got bluer in 08, and now are back to red.
I appreciate the yeoman’s work you are doing re Ohio, as I’m sure many FReepers are. There is no doubt in my mind this is a harbinger of what will happen on Election Day.
Yup, I researched that anyway. In addition to what you just said, Operation Chaos was not promoted in OH either, because a lot of sources mistakenly labeled OH as a closed primary state. It was a lot more popular in NH and a few other states.
I was very careful to make sure that the numbers are an apples-to-apples comparison, which is why I’ve been asking you so many questions. Everything points to these numbers being as good as they really are on the surface.
Also, I remember 2008. The mail-in absentee numbers were definitely NOT good back then, across all states.
There are just 2 points that worry me:
1. The relatively high turnout in Democratic counties as opposed to Republican counties, but we already talked about that, and the fact that they’re “used” to voting absentee covers a lot; and
2. IA ballot requests.
Good point. If Cuyahoga county was some sort of reverse operation chaos, then you would expect the Republican spike to be confined to that county.
I suppose the response would be that democrats all across the state re-registered to vote in the Republican primary, hence the overall surge. But I find that unlikely.