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Posted on 09/29/2012 4:21:28 PM PDT by LS
Edited on 09/29/2012 9:34:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
All: Go to the spreadsheet. Looks like some of the drive-bys are concerned enough to try and "caveat" us!!
His first point is bogus. You're going to tell me that people who actually voted in PRIMARIES (i.e., the hard core) "aren't particularly informative" as a number?
Can't sneak his second point by us: these numbers represent not MAILED REQUEST FORMS BUT MAILED ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS!!!
Point three is absolutely RIGHT, and that's what apparently is really scaring them, is that we will be able to track this stuff even better.
Does anyone else have this same reaction, or am I off base? I smell fear here.
As for new updates, Franklin CO now maintains its 5.5% GOP lead; Hamilton a large GOP lead edging on 2:1.
Yup, I researched that anyway. In addition to what you just said, Operation Chaos was not promoted in OH either, because a lot of sources mistakenly labeled OH as a closed primary state. It was a lot more popular in NH and a few other states.
I was very careful to make sure that the numbers are an apples-to-apples comparison, which is why I’ve been asking you so many questions. Everything points to these numbers being as good as they really are on the surface.
Also, I remember 2008. The mail-in absentee numbers were definitely NOT good back then, across all states.
There are just 2 points that worry me:
1. The relatively high turnout in Democratic counties as opposed to Republican counties, but we already talked about that, and the fact that they’re “used” to voting absentee covers a lot; and
2. IA ballot requests.
Good point. If Cuyahoga county was some sort of reverse operation chaos, then you would expect the Republican spike to be confined to that county.
I suppose the response would be that democrats all across the state re-registered to vote in the Republican primary, hence the overall surge. But I find that unlikely.
Dittos to that... thank you, LS!
Thanks LS
Look at the counties still not listed on the spreadsheet yet: Adams, Auglaize, Clermont, Fairfield, Fayette, Gallia, Guernsney, Hancock, Huron, Jackson, Marion, Medina, Mercer, Miami, Morgan, Morrow, Noble, Ottawa, Perry, Pike, Preble, Richland, Ross, Sandusky, Scioto, Shelby, Stark, Vinton and Wyandot. That is 29 counties right there still yet to be accounted for as far as absentee ballot requests. Some of that information I presume is forthcoming. Let’s see how each of those counties performed in 08:
Adams: Mccain-61%, Obama-37% (6914 to 4170)
Auglaize: McCain-70%, Obama-29% (16395 to 6727)
Clermont: McCain-65.5%, Obama-33.1% (62559 to 31611)
Fairfield: McCain-57.8, Obama-40.7 (41580 to 29250)
Fayette: McCain-60.7, Obama-37.6 (7102 to 4401)
Gallia: McCain-61.9, Obama-35.9 (8247 to 4777)
Guersney: McCain-53.1, Obama-44 (9197 to 7625)
Hancock: McCain-60.8, Obama-37.6 (22420 to 13870)
Huron: McCain-50.4, Obama-47.2 (12884 to 12076)
Jackson: McCain-58.7, Obama-38.6 (8219 to 5397)
Marion: McCain-53.3, Obama-44.4 (15454 to 12870)
Medina: McCain-53.3, Obama-45.2 (48189 to 40924)
Mercer: McCain-71, Obama-27.5 (15100 to 5853)
Miami: McCain-63.3, Obama-34.8 (33417 to 18372)
Morgan: McCain-52.1, Obama-44.9 (3440 to 2966)
Morrow: McCain-60.5, Obama-37.1 (10067 to 6177)
Noble: McCain-55.9, Obama-44.1 (3450 to 2474)
Ottawa: McCain-46.0, Obama-52 (10618 to 12049)
Perry: McCain-50.1, Obama-47.1 (7721 to 7261)
Pike: McCain-49.3, Obama-48.2 (6162 to 6033)
Preble: McCain-64.6, Obama-33.3 (13562 to 6999)
Richland: McCain-55.7, Obama-42.1 (34034 to 25727)
Ross: McCain-52.6, Obama-45.4 (16759 to 14455)
Sandusky: McCain-46.7, Obama-51.4 (14190 to 15601)
Scioto: McCain-52.2, Obama-45.8 (16994 to 14926)
Shelby: McCain-67.3, Obama-30.9 (15924 to 7317)
Stark: McCain-46.3, Obama-51.7 (86743 to 96990)
Vinton: McCain-53.5, Obama-43.6 (3021 to 2463)
Wyandot: Mcain-57.1, Obama-40.6 (6270 to 4461)
McCain carried 26 of 29 of these counties and we are still awaiting absentee ballot requests from all these counties. The counties that Obama won, Ottawa, Sandusky and Stark were close enough that I could see Romney winning them this time. But most of all, the overall democratic margin of 5% currently for 2012 requests vs. 14% in 2008 I believe will narrow to near parity if not complete parity by election day. And we know election day is ours for the taking. And this is again assuming no dems vote for Romney which we know is not true. Also Obama beat McCain 2.94 million to 2.68 million. We are now close to 1 million absentee ballot requests if not over. We could go over 2 million possibly closer to 3 million absentee ballots by election day. Turnout this year may be a little lower because of cleansing of voter rolls and lower population overall and other factors. So I’m thinking turnout will be 5.4 to 5.5 million. With already maybe 1 million ballots requested, we have close to 20% of the votes already cast or in the process of being cast. I think we easily start to compare to 2008 just based on the amount of votes already being cast based on this. Mr. McDonald, you know not of what you speak.
2) note in his HuffPo article, which, I think plushaye posted, is that he claims that all the rural counties, including most of those you list, had disproportionately requested ballots. If that's the case, I think that makes our case even stronger because as you point out, those haven't even kicked in yet. Right?
I don’t do much: LdSentinal, plushaye, and Ravi do most of the real number crunching, Jet Jaguar does the png list. I’m just a historian who can read, unlike, apparently, HuffPo prof McDonald. But what I CAN do is use my contacts to get info out to Beck, Rush, and others but it has to be rock solid. I was a little embarrassed in08 by county level people giving unreliable info that they swore by. Therefore, while I think his arguments are wrong and deliberately designed to downplay the numbers, McDonald’s comments are good because they make us challenge every assumption.
Before the rise of ACORN-level fraud, weren’t GOP voters traditionally bigger users of absentee ballots?
True, but a change in the law to also early voting is essentially a form of absentee, and in-person early voting in 08 went hugely Dem. still, see the analysis by plushaye on this thread. We are in really good shape.
To me it seems very relevant that last time around voters in only overwhelmingly Democrat counties were all mailed absentee request forms—and this time around the playing field was leveled.
Why wouldn’t that be a factor to consider?
Yes, this is Hugh. LOL
That’s the whole point of what we are showing. If the election were today in OH, the Ds would be killed. If the early/absentees on Nov. 5 haven’t produced a massive advantage for ZEro, he’ll lose, probably big.
Curiouser and curiouser: today the “CAVEAT” is removed!! So, perhaps someone at the “Early Voting Project” saw this as a guy trying to “vote tamper” or perhaps someone else actually sees what we see-—a trend.
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I like good news too, but I think your logic is faulty.
In general GOP types may be a little more organized, likely to be traveling on election day, or whatever—and more prone to absentee voting. That doesn’t mean that their greater representation in absentee voting reflects how the population would vote at that point, were the polls opened and all of that.
They certainly did in 08. In fact, I distinctly remember threads on FR that were very concerned because the early/absentee voting in NV came in heavy Obama. We can’t play it both ways. This is significant, it is a change from 08, and it’s a change in our direction. Whether it keeps up, we’ll see, but the direction hasn’t changed in almost three weeks now.
By the way, here are today’s updates. Wow. They just keep moving the GOP’s way, in red counties, in blue counties, in polka-dot counties. These are not insignificant shifts:
Champaign Co was -3% D, now 23 point diff. (Gop was barely ahead in 08, now 4:1) Brown GOP picked up about two full points (was 10:6, now is 11:5) Columbiana was 9% D advantage, now Rs lead by 9%; Coshocton GOP gained about 2 points from 2008 Crawford: Dems had a 2.8% advantage in 08, now trail almost 2:1 Cuyahoga actually seems to be very slightly increasing the difference toward a 7 point Dem falloff. Erie, over 2:1 Dem in 08, is almost even, a swing of 20 points. Geauga, 2.5:1 GOP in 208 is now closer to 3:1 Greene: a 1000 vote Dem advantage in 08, now more than 2:1 Rs (not a lot of ballot requests here) Harrison: 2:1 Dems in 08, now tied. (A 21 point swing). Jefferson, more than 2:1 D in 08, now slightly less than 2:1 Licking, which had a 100 vote R advantage in 08, now is just under 2:1 MONTGOMERY (my place) was 3:1D in 08 and is now a margin of only 10% D advantage Muskingum, a 200 vote D advantage in 08, now a 2:1 R advantage. Portage, a 100 vote R advantage in 08 now is already a 400 R advantage. Putnam: a 3:1 R advantage in 08 is now almost 4:1 (but low numbers still) Seneca: a 100 vote D advantage in 08 is just under a 2:1 R advantage now Summit: a more than 3:1 Dem advantage is now 1300 votes difference, or about 4% difference Trumbull: a 4:1 D advantage in 08 is less than 3:1 now. Tuscarawas was just over 2:1 Dem, now Rs have a 1% lead. How about this? In Union, Rs had a 600 vote margin at the end. ALREADY they have a 600 vote margin! Washington: R advantage has grown by 3% Wayne, a 500 vote 08 advantage is now a 700 vote disadvantage, and 2/3 of the total R absentees in 08 have requested ballots already
I really appreciate your research!
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I am emailing a link of your last update comment on Ohio to ChadGate country where I grew up - and where algore was finally retired from politics forever
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