In that regard, I believe (actually hope) that Obama's support is a mile wide and an inch deep and based largely on the negative image of Romney that Obama and the media have created. If that is true, Romney still has time, especially in the debates, to reverse that image. Also, if your primary motivation for voting is a sense of disquiet or distrust regarding Romney are you as likely to vote as the millions of folks who desparately fear another four years of Obama?
I am actually more concerned about the Senate. If we lose Maine and hold Nevada and Massachusetts, we need four for a tie and five for a majority. Where will those seats come from? In order of probable liklihood: Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Can it be done? Certainly. Might I humbly suggest that Ryan spend some time campaigning with the Republican Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?
>> If we lose Maine and hold Nevada and Massachusetts, we need four for a tie and five for a majority. Where will those seats come from? <<
My take:
NE — ‘Pub win
MT — ditto
ND — ditto
VA — too close to call
WI — ditto
MO — Dhimmi win
OH — ditto
FL — ditto
PA — ditto
Conclusion: 50% chance for a tie, with only a 25% chance for a GOP takeover. So if Romney loses, then Biden probably casts the deciding vote in the Senate, meaning that if Scalia or Kennedy dies or retires before the 2016 election, bye-bye 2nd Amendment.
The news media is on ‘black out “ status for Ryan.
The media is run by Axelrod now.
It’s obvious the news media has intentionally
Stop covering the crowds and any excitement linked to the GOP period .
It’ conflicts with the Axelrod orders which is peddle the
Race is over .
Read the posts here , the posters have fallen for the psych ops .
A news black out except for negative news has posters panicked here.
I don’t know anything about Casey Jr’s opponent in PA. Other than his name is Tom Smith (and I READ that he has tea party ties). Since I never saw this race flagged by the GOP, I’m guessing they think it’s hopeless.
The GOP is all in for George Allen in VA. I have seen him appear with Romney and Ryan.
Wisconsin is a bit muddled. There you have Tommy Thompson who is WI famous, against a radical liberal from the US House, Tammy Baldwin. It’s a no-brainer as far as who would be a disaster, but Thompson is not tea party and often says things the tea party would not support. So how that cuts in terms of campaigning for him I don’t know.
But let me say this...Tommy Thompson is THE single most famous Wisconsinite in his home state, and it would look peculiar if the GOP thought it had to campaign with Tommy Thompson in order to beat back a radical lib from a single radical lib district in that state.
I think they believe there’s no hope for Bill Nelson’s opponent in FL, or very little, Connie Mack JR. Or, it could be they think if the famous name of Connie Mack in FL can’t stand on its own, the name of Romney or Ryan campaigning with him won’t cut it, either.
In MO, you have the GOP establishment ostracizing Todd Akin ever since his “legitimate rape” remark. They swear they will not support him, that he’s on his own. Newt Gingrich has announced support as has Jim DeMint, so we’ll see if that helps.
I read where a poll showed the Republican in MT with a small lead over Tester, the incumbent.
But would Romney or Ryan help a Montanan beat another Montanan if that candidate couldn’t do it by himself? Westerners tend to be very independent vs outsiders.
I saw something about ND being surprisingly close, like toss-up, when previously it was thought to be a sure gain. But again, how would an outsider campaigning there help. Outsiders with big names help in some types of places, but not so much in some others.