>> If we lose Maine and hold Nevada and Massachusetts, we need four for a tie and five for a majority. Where will those seats come from? <<
My take:
NE — ‘Pub win
MT — ditto
ND — ditto
VA — too close to call
WI — ditto
MO — Dhimmi win
OH — ditto
FL — ditto
PA — ditto
Conclusion: 50% chance for a tie, with only a 25% chance for a GOP takeover. So if Romney loses, then Biden probably casts the deciding vote in the Senate, meaning that if Scalia or Kennedy dies or retires before the 2016 election, bye-bye 2nd Amendment.
What basis do you have that Casey Jr will be defeated in PA and that Nelson will lose in FL?