Posted on 09/28/2012 2:24:26 PM PDT by Red Steel
In several battleground states, President Barack Obama is either tied within the margin of error or pulling ahead, which is getting a lot attention from the media. We get updates on every swing state there is. But here's one statistic we don't hear much about: Gallup reports that 22 percent of swing-state voters say they may still change their minds. Those one-in-five who say they might change their minds includes 10 percent who currently say they support Obama and 7 percent who support Romney. In swing states that are within the margin of error, that's huge. And we're not hearing much about that at all.
Here's something else we're not hearing much about: "swing" voters. Whatever happened to the all-important independent voters Obama won by a large margin in 2008—52 percent for Obama to 44 percent for McCain—and who make up a record 38 percent of the electorate? According to Pew Research's numbers this summer, only 32 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats, and 24 percent Republicans. Nearly 4 in 10 voters now are independents, the largest margin ever.
[Check out our editorial cartoons on President Obama.]
There's not much news about horse-race numbers among independent voters, at least not in the last few months. I think if Obama were leading among independents, we'd be hearing all about them. Instead, we're hearing a lot of crickets chirping.
You have to look hard to find mentions of independents at all. If you dug deep into a CNN poll taken earlier this month of both registered and likely voters—which showed an overall lead of 52 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney—you'd find that Romney led Obama among likely independent voters by a whopping 14 points, 54 to 40 percent.
[See a collection of political cartoons on the 2012 campaign.]
Columnist Dustin Hawkins at breitbart.com pointed out this week that in swing states Ohio and Florida, nearly every poll that showed Obama leading also showed that Romney leads among independents. Hawkins noted that Obama won both states in 2008 by small margins, mostly by winning independents.
In swing states like Ohio and Florida whose voters were polled by Gallup, a 20-point increase in Democratic enthusiasm made the headlines. This fact did not make the news: From June to September, the number of independents who are "extremely or very enthusiastic" about voting this year has similarly jumped 18 points, from 25 percent to 43 percent.
[Read the U.S. News Debate: Did the '47 Percent' Video Sink Romney's Campaign?]
If you believe, as I do, that the central question in this election is whether to grow the government going forward or reform the government we have, then here's the most telling number of all: In Gallup's polling right after the Democratic convention, nearly two-thirds of independents said that government "is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses."
That's almost exactly the opposite of what two-thirds of Democrats said that government should do more.
That's a huge disconnect between the president and independent voters, and there's not a peep about it in the media. I don't think that's by accident.
It's simply beyond belief that Romney has that kind of a lead with independents and the libs still insist that obama's leading and has this thing wrapped up!
obama's going down!
The word “Independent” really means: “I have always been a democrat, but I am having my doubts about that whole bunch, and I am willing to take a good look at the Republicans.”
LOL!!!!
I’m looking at stats published in Fox News articles and collected by bi-partisan agencies. Hard facts say that since 2008, in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina, Democratic voter registration dropped a combined total of 480,000 and registration. Independents rose 443,000 and Republicans rose 38,000. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.
In most cases, Democrats fled their registration to become Independents since 2008. What I’m puzzled about is what could have caused this exodus to the “mushy middle”. Does it correspond with the Democratic Party’s sharp swing to the left in policy? In that case, look out Obama campaign when the vote numbers start coming in!
The last tango in Obamaland. 90% of them should resign and become newspaper delivery boys.
The media ignores absolutely everything that doesnt denigrate Romney or at least cast him in a bad light.
“It’s simply beyond belief that Romney has that kind of a lead with independents and the libs still insist that obama’s leading and has this thing wrapped up! “
Is this just cover for the massive voter fraud that is going to occur this November???
“In most cases, Democrats fled their registration to become Independents since 2008. What I’m puzzled about is what could have caused this exodus to the “mushy middle”. Does it correspond with the Democratic Party’s sharp swing to the left in policy? In that case, look out Obama campaign when the vote numbers start coming in!”
Polling wasn’t as “sophisticated” then, so looking back at the numbers won’t be of any help, but I urge you to look at the YouTube clips of Election Night, 1980. Virtually all of the MSM talking heads were practically bawling on the screen and asking each other in a daze “just what happened here?”.
They have that on youtube? I have to see that!
Thanks for the tip.
With regard to this particular issue, the liberal media includes Fox News. Hannity’s as sold on pumping Obama as any onf them.
You are full of it. Hannity couldn’t be any more anti 0bama then he already is, and you know it
Indies will put R&R over the top.
Get off the crack pipe, it’s not good for your health.
Which is why if this is anywhere NEAR true-—that Romney leads among indies at even 5 points-—based on our spreadsheet of absentee voters, this is all over but the crying in OH.
Its money !!!!!!!!!!!!!
You think any of these news people are into this for their health, or for the country?
Fundamentally they are all as real and as deep as Ron Burgundy, even the women newsies & pundits!
Today Hannity said he believes Obama is up by 2 or 3 points over Romney.
Part of what makes it obvious to me is how he repeatedly tried to back it up by saying how Michael Barone knows everything about all elections dating back several decades.
You can tell these are lies not only because the claims contradict experience, but because they’re decorated with extra tidbits to enhance the appearance of truth, like Barone knows everything about all elections and of course Obama is ahead because of Romney’s 47% comments.
Sure, maybe Hannity has been suckered too but that doesn’t give me reason to trust him or anyone else.
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