[RaisingCain]

I’m not exactly sure what the hubbub is. The percentages are lower for the Dems, but the total lists them as having 20,000 more ballot requests than the Republicans. Didn’t early voting just START this week also, and there’s about 4 million votes to go?

[LS]

No, the "hubbub" is that a) Dem numbers are down, but more important Dem percentages compared to 2008 absentee numbers. Then further, you have R numbers up, and in many counties way up, over 2008. Now, further let this sink in; it's across the board, in every county. The total vote is not the issue. The issue is, Can we make assumptions based on the comparisons between 08 and 2012 about the turnout in the general election? And history says, "Yep." The fact that this is universal means we can cross off statistical anomalies as accounting for the turnout differential.

The upshot is, the polls are badly off based on REAL DATA. There is no reason to assume even a 2-point D advantage, much less a +9 Dem advantage. It means we are looking at another 2012, not 2008 .

[MNJohnnie]

The hubba is they are in heavy Democrat areas. Democrats pushed their early voting scheme to give their lazy voters more time to get around to vote. One of the problem Dems have always had is GOP voters show up on election day, Dem voters some times do, some times don’t.

Having a massive down turn in their early voting totals indicates Dems are not nearly as fired up in 2012 as they were in 2008.

That is contrary to what all the Mass Media pollsters are claiming. According to their polls Dems just cannot wait to vote in 2012 like they did in 2008

[spicymayo]

Its extremely significant. In counties where both 2008 and 2012 data is available - Dems requested 14% more ballots than Dems in 2008. In those very same counties, Dems are requesting only 5% more in 2012. This suggests a 9% swing.

Obama won by 4.6% in 2008, this trend points to a Romney win by 4-5%.