Posted on 09/28/2012 2:20:21 PM PDT by LS
In addition to the numbers posted this morning, a few later additions: Cuyahoga (heavily Dem Cleveland) county is STILL underperforming, coming in at 6% under 2008 levels.
Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.
Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).
Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: Rs only 1300 back in total votes, or 5% difference (in 08 they lost by almost three to one).
Hardin: GOP had a 1400-1100 lead in 08. It's already three to one Rs, and about one third of total GOP ballots are in. Dems down in total requests by 2500 (!)
Logan: no 2008 data (McCain won by 26.5) Rs up four to one.
Pickaway: Rs up almost two to one---lost by 1000 absentee votes in 08 but went overall for McCain by 21.5.
Washington: Rs up two to one, absentees in 08 were three to two (McCain won by 15.5).
In the comments was a little but interesting piece of info. In 2008, the absentee ballot request form to send back was postage-paid - maybe due to cost-cutting state measures. This year you have to put your own stamp on it.
Would a prepaid envelope make some difference in the number of ballot requests returned? Perhaps if a voter isn’t enthusiastic, they might not bother sending the form in or they procrastinate in getting a stamp. If the voter really wants to vote, they wouldn’t mind paying to send it in.
I dunno. Maybe it’s a stretch but there is a reason why many charitable organizations send you prepaid addressed envelopes with their appeals.
This is where Romney is spending a lot of those millions. RESEARCH. They have been polling and analyzing data for months now. And they are very focused on targeted GOTV efforts. Romney is running a new kind of campaign. We will know in 6 weeks if it is successful. But there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than we can tell from ads, polls, campaign appearances and stuff. Keep the faith.
Could you add me too.
Added.
Thank you.
The great news is for far according to the data tabulated by LS the difference in absentee ballots in 2008 was 150,000 ballot advantage for democrats over Republicans, in 2012 so far the advantage for democrats is only 25,000 ballots for democrats over Republicans... This is a huge loss for the democrats and if the same ratio of democrat decline occurs all the way till Elections Day then Obama is going to lose Ohio... The math cannot be disputed if this pattern of democrat loss continue until Elections Day...
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ThankS!
You are added.
Please delete post 90. It was measnt for freepmail.
Please delete post 90. It was meant for freepmail.
You know, I think you really hit on something. Think of the SEIU hag screaming about the free phone. Would someone like that really buy a stamp, even if someone else had mass- filled out the ballot request for her?
by reporting that O is ahead will not increase dem voter intensity.
Reporting is meant to demoralize our side
]\
Or perhaps it is the pollsters wrongly utilizing their data and don’t even realize their bias. Sometimes its hard to see the forest for the trees.
Is there a comparable guy like you in VA and FL? Great stuff!
Zactley!!!
Coal is making a big impact in Pa, Wv, Va and even Se Ohio.
OH FL and VA are just about MUST win for Romney.
I have been trying to find data on Virginia, but unfortunately, the Virginia Secretary of State website does not list the data. In addition, here in Virginia you do not register by party. It would be helpful, however, to see the absolute numbers of absentees going to certain counties in 2012 versus in 2008.
The updated results now include Delaware County. I talked about metro Columbus in another thread. This county is north of Franklin and is part of the GOP-leaning suburban “ring” around Columbus (and also part of Kasich’s old congressional district.) Bush got 66 percent there, but dropped to 59 percent for McCain.
With 16,958 ballots requested, Republicans have a 33%-9% lead, for a 25% margin.
There’s no 2008 numbers, but there are some for nearby Licking County, which seems to be slightly more Dem, yet Republican margin has surged from a 0.37% advantage to a 16.44% margin. So far, other Columbus-area counties (Franklin, Union, Pickaway) have also shown big surges in Republican absentee requests, so I assume a similar surge is taking place in Delaware as well. If so, that means GOP turnout in many of these suburbs is going to look more like 2004 or 2010 than 2008.
Now, turning to Lake County, west of Cuyhouga County. Republican margin is up more slightly so far, 7.03% up from 5.72%. Not a big surge, but Lake County seems to be more heavily polarized. In 2004, it went 51%-48% for Bush, while it barely went for Obama by 1,013 votes, so this place barely changed much from 2004, not at all characteristic of much of the rest of the state. So no big surge here, but it doesn’t look like you would.
So far, it looks like Columbus metro is experiencing a big snapback. I suspect Obama ran farther ahead in this area than a Dem candidate usually would, because of higher turnout among blacks and college students, as well as gaining votes among some disaffected suburbanites that were probably affected by the housing bubble bust.
Finally, I see some numbers from Williams County, on the Indiana-Ohio border. This county had a HUGE swing from 2004 to 2008. It gave Bush 65 percent, then plummeted to just 54 percent for McCain. This seems to be historical GOP territory that swings Dem in times of economic distress. It’s currently showing a 35%-11% GOP advantage, for a 24 point margin. These numbers look comparable to other higher GOP margins in the other counties, which means Williams County probably isn’t going to give Obama anything like the 44% he got in 2008.
In sum, the trend continues to be our friend.
On the list, please.
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