Posted on 09/27/2012 7:11:25 PM PDT by blam
Military Conflict 'Looms' Between China And Japan
War between China and Japan looms, with neither power willing to back down over a disputed chain of islands, expert warns.
Yan Xuetong who has warned that unless one side backs down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands Conflict in Asia
By Malcolm Moore, Beijing
September 27, 2012
The spat over the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands has escalated dramatically in the past month with violent protests across China.
But with a national election approaching in Japan, and a change of leadership in China, politicians on both sides have refused to step back from the brink, afraid that they will appear weak.
"There is a danger of China and Japan having a military conflict," said Yan Xuetong, one of China's most influential foreign policy strategists, and a noted hawk.
"One country must make a concession. But I do not see Japan making concessions. I do not see either side making concessions. Both sides want to solve the situation peacefully, but neither side can provide the right approach," he added.
He warned that unless one side backs down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands Conflict in Asia.
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"Generally speaking, according to the theory of international relations, unless one country makes concessions to the other, the escalation of a conflict between two countries will not stop until there is a military clash, like between the UK and Argentina," he said.
He added: "China takes a very tolerant policy elsewhere, with smaller powers.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Well you are entitled to your opinion, as much as I am to mine. However, the facts are on Japan’s side. Japan has administered the islands. China ceded any claims after their defeat to Japan in the 1894 war. That alone should be enough. The USA administered the islands after the defeat of Japan in WWII. China made no claims for the islands, until the discovery of oil and natural gas fields. The USA returned the islands to Japanese rule in 1972. China is making noise now, to distract their people from economic woes. Taiwan is jumping on the bandwagon, because they think they are the rightful rulers of China (ain’t happening anytime soon). The Taiwanese fishing boats had no business going into traditional Japanese waters, and Japan was within their rights to remind them. There, clear enough?
All agreed to except the Taiwanese have been fishing those waters for a long time and just now encountered the resistance.
No it doesn’t. Not unless Pres. Obama lets Iran get a nuke. All bets are off then, and we’ll finally see if Japan has been secretly building nukes for just this occasion .
Wait, actually Japan just purchased these islands last week from a private owner. Until then everything was fine. I had forgotten about that.
Not sure what is more scary...Iran or the fact that fish are so important suddenly in the waters off China.
The Taiwanese fishing boats were accompanied by military gunboats from Taiwan, which was an aggressive action for simply fishing. The Japanese showed restraint by only using water hoses on the fishing boats.
Yes, Japan purchasing the islands from the Japanese private owner was a catalyst. Guess they wanted to keep the owner from selling to the highest offer! Plus he maybe also had a gun to his head to make a deal (been watching too many spy movies). No one knows why this happened, other than the fuss over oil and gas potential there.
I do not think the chicoms will back down. If the chicoms back down in the case of the Senkakus with the Japanese, it sets bad precedence against other claims the chicoms have, to include but not limited to, the Scarborough Shoal (Philippines), Spratleys (numerous countries), and off-shore oil blocks (Vietnam). It is to the chicoms benefit to make an example of the Japanese for other South China Sea countries to ponder before making counter-claims or standing up against them. I think the chicoms prefer to bully every claimant individually than deal with them collectively and this might include having the US stay in the sidelines so they can get away with this strategy. The ball is the the Japanese court; interesting to see what their next move might be.
Regards.
This will end badly, very badly. China has nukes. Japan doesn’t.
Yes, China does have nukes. Japan also has ABM capability, so there is some level of defense against that threat.
Should Japan be humiliated and forced to back down, or worse yet, suffer a devastating defeat, while the US fails to back them, there would probably be great pressure for them to develop nuclear weapons for protection to counter China. After all, they would not be able to count on the US “nuclear umbrella” if they couldn’t count on The US in a conventional conflict. Of course an arms race would mean that defense contractors would be able to readily peddle their wares, but these things rarely end well. However, I’d like for them to be able to handle this without the US - we simply can’t afford it. Our forces are stretched to the breaking point and we really don’t have the money.
In Taiwan, they do what China tells them to do or else.
I agree. Iran is enough to worry about right now.
Japan would need the US’s nuclear umbrella unless it could assemble a couple on the fly and test one in the Pacific. That would be pretty interesting.
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