[Alter Kaker]

He has to lose exactly 3% of his voters. That is all. He won with 52.6% of the vote. That is all. If he loses 3% of his vote, or if the Black vote falls to it's normal level of 11% of the population, He loses and he knows it.

That assumes the voter population is identical to 2008. The reality is that the population changes (older voters die, immigrants are naturalized, younger voters register) probably give Obama another 2% or so to work with. We're running up against demographic problems.

[Jim from C-Town]

Yea right. All those 15% of the vote that was black will replicate. None of those avenues of fraud have been closed out by new ID laws, and replicate the HIGHEST Democrat turn out in three generations.

Ain't gunna happen.

2008 was a fluke that will not replicate. A normal turn out election and he is swamped by Republican votes. In this election MORE Republicans than Democrats will vote. They are at a high water mark, The Democrats are at a historic LOW watermark and Romney LEADS decisively we are to believe that O’Bumbler will generate MORE enthusiasm than the last electrion cycle, Please.