Posted on 09/26/2012 11:37:41 AM PDT by nhwingut
Whatever Democratic skew may exist in the public polling on the presidential race, theres no question about the current trajectory of the 2012 campaign: Republican Mitt Romney, who has steadily trailed by a small margin, is losing ground. Conservatives and the Romney campaign may say that the swing state polls which shows a widening lead for Obama are out of whack, but the trend is unmistakable. A month ago in must-win Ohio, Romney trailed in the Quinnipiac University poll commissioned by the New York Times and CBS News by 6 points. Its now 10 points.
Polls may not be predictive, but even a poll that doesnt reflect the actual condition of the electorate can still show you the trend line. And right now, there arent any indications that Romney is closing the gap. Romney may be closer than a double-digit deficit, but hes sure not where he needs to be.
Romneys attack slogan on President Obama has been Obama isnt working, but its clear that Romneys strategy hasnt been working.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
When the finish line gets near, there will be an all out sprint (I hope and believe).
Unlike McCain, Romney knows the country and Israel hang in the balance. It's now or never.
No, not if it increases the "D" sample.
This article is completely full of slop.
Just saw a clip of him in Ohio, railing against Obama’s commitment to the Greek path. He seemed to have some fire in his belly. Good to see.
It was also fun to watch Alan Skeletor Colmes deny that Obamacare was having a negative impact on business. “I don’t trust those right wing polls!”
UnSkewed Polling Data
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Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Obama(D) | Romney(R) | Spread |
UnSkewed Avg. | 9/4 - 9/20 | -- | -- | 44.0 | 51.8 | Romney +7.8 |
Reason/Rupe | 9/13 - 9/17 | 787 LV | 4.3 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
Reuters/Ipsos | 9/12 - 9/20 | 1437 LV | 2.9 | 44.0 | 54.0 | Romney +10 |
NBC News/WSJ | 9/12 - 9/16 | 736 LV | 3.6 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
Monmouth Univ. | 9/13 - 9/16 | 1344 LV | 2.5 | 45.0 | 50.0 | Romney +5 |
QStarNews | 9/10 - 9/15 | 2075 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 55.0 | Romney +11 |
NY Times/CBS News | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1162 LV | 3.0 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
Democracy Corps | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 43.0 | 52.0 | Romney +8 |
Fox News | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1056 LV | 3.0 | 45.0 | 48.0 | Romney +3 |
Wash. Post/ABC News | 9/7 - 9/9 | 826 LV | 4.0 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
CNN/ORC | 9/7 - 9/9 | 875 RV | 3.5 | 45.0 | 53.0 | Romney +8 |
IBD/CSM/TIPP | 9/4 - 9/9 | 808 RV | 3.5 | 41.0 | 50.0 | Romney +9 |
ARG | 9/4 - 9/6 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 | Romney +10 |
UnSkewed Polling Data
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Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Approval | Disapproval | Spread |
UnSkewed Avg. | 9/4 - 9/20 | -- | -- | 44.1 | 52.9 | Disapproval 8.8 |
Reason/Rupe | 9/13 - 9/17 | 787 LV | 4.3 | 44.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 9 |
NBC News/WSJ | 9/12 - 9/16 | 736 LV | 3.6 | 44.0 | 54.0 | Disapproval 10 |
QStarNews | 9/10 - 9/15 | 2075 | 3.0 | 45.0 | 55.0 | Disapproval 10 |
NY Times/CBS News | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1162 LV | 3.0 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Disapproval 7 |
Democracy Corps | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 42.0 | 55.0 | Disapproval 13 |
Fox News | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1056 LV | 3.0 | 45.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 8 |
Wash. Post/ABC News | 9/7 - 9/9 | 826 LV | 4.0 | 45.0 | 49.0 | Disapproval 4 |
CNN/ORC | 9/7 - 9/9 | 875 RV | 3.5 | 44.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 9 |
‘B O U T
T I M E!!!!!
I do believe that Romney and Ryan will DESTROY Obama and Biden in the debates!
I think D+1 or D+2 is probably reasonable - 2010 was +/-0 and 2008 was D+7. A conservative estimate would be that turnout will be between the two, but much closer to 2010 than 2008.
That puts Romney basically ahead 51-49 (more like 50-48, with 2% typically voting “other”).
Most uninformed people want to be on the winning side so they will vote for whoever is supposed to win. The media knows this and always projects their candidate as the leader.
As much as I wish it was someone other than Romney, I voted for McCain so a vote for Romney will be one small vote for a man, one huge step up in class.
To heck with courting Independents. This election will be about firing up the base! We need to mobilize and get every registered Rep to the polls. GOP passion will win this, just as it did in 2010. Obama is toast! FMLTGE
In N.Y. Romney hit hard, then in OH he went limp again.
He must establish a strong, personal message, and then fight like he means it!
“Likeability” is for wimps!
“If you want a JOB, in a GROWING ECONOMY, under FREEDOMS, granted by GOD, and protected by our CONSTITUTION, then VOTE FOR ME!”
He should call Sarah Palin.
Exactly. And this guy is FOXNews’ polling guru.
August Poll
QP had sample D+7. Obama was up 6.
September Poll
QP had sample D+10. Obama up 10.
The only trend is... If you add more Dems, Obama’s margin increases.
Bump.
To heck with courting Independents. This election will be about firing up the base! We need to mobilize and get every registered Rep to the polls. GOP passion will win this, just as it did in 2010. Obama is toast! FMLTGE
FOX polling is nowhere near the top of reliable polls.
That said, be sure to vote on election day, uh er, or before election day.
That is the ultimate poll, uh, er, until the democrats take the whole thing to court.
Chick-fil-A day was a warmup for Nov...
Better for ratings.
LLS
My sentiments exactly! And what really ticks me off is FOX’s willingness to continually promote this meme. All that accomplishes is to legitimize bogus polls. So much for fair and balanced!
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