Posted on 09/25/2012 5:30:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
Editors' note: this piece originally appeared at PolicyMic.
Two things typically happen after the major parties conventions come to an end. People that normally do not pay attention for most of the year start to pay attention to the news and polls more, and voter enthusiasm jumps up as a result. The major polls that are appearing on the daily newscasts, in the newspapers and on the internet have become incredibly important. While meant to accurately reflect the views of the nation, these polls today have unfortunately turned into a weapon.
Many major organizations have skewed their polls as of late. They do this a couple of subtle ways that most people will not notice unless they bother to do a little digging. By over-sampling Democrat voters and under-sampling both Republicans and Independents, the poll organizations have been able to make it appear as though President Barack Obama has a decisive lead over former Governor Mitt Romney.
Aside from over-sampling, they also base their samples on previous voter turnout. Typically this is done with the last major voting year, which would have been 2010. Unfortunately for all of us, most polling agencies are basing their samples off of the 2008 turnout model. In 2008, the Republican vote was depressed, while Democrats came out in record numbers. In 2010, the Republicans returned in force, resulting in one of the most dramatic turnovers in history.
Considering that the GOP has maintained relatively high voter enthusiasm, there is no reason to believe that their numbers will be as low as in 2008. In fact, according to Rasmussen, Republican Party affiliation is at an eight year high, while Democratic Party affiliation is over four points behind. While Democrats have been registering more people over the past month, it is highly unlikely they will be able to overtake the GOP's lead.
So why should we believe that Democrats will come out in such superior numbers?
Conventional wisdom says that Obama should be trailing Mitt Romney in the polls, and the fact that he doesn’t appear to be doing so means that Romney must just be that weak of a candidate. Thankfully, some people have "unskewed" the polls, showing what looks to be a much different race than what we’ve all been fed by the mainstream media.
A look at the Unskewed polls shows us a spread of Mitt Romney being nearly 8 full points ahead of President Obama. While conservatives will naturally want to jump for joy, they should first remember the wise words made famous by President Reagan: Trust, but verify.
Rasmussen shows the current party affiliation as 37.6% Republicans, 33.3% Democrats and 29.2% Independents. However, the sample from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows an over-sampling of Democrats by 8%! Instead of the plus four margin that the GOP should be enjoying to accurately reflect the current voter rolls, the Democrats are instead being reflected by a plus four margin. With the data unskewed and the appropriate number of independents reflected, Mitt Romney would actually lead by a near 7-point margin.
One sample is an outlier. Two or more? That's something else.
A recent New York Times/CBS poll came out showing 49% for Obama and 46% for Romney. Again, the data was wildly skewed in favor of Democrats. Unskewed data shows Romney with a lead again, 51% to 44%. The sample for that poll broke down with 44% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 18% Independents.
Polls have constantly shown Romney leading with Independent voters by double digits. Massive over-sampling of Democrats and under-sampling of Republicans and Independents was used again to make it appear that Obama is doing much better than he normally would be.
Each polls that the website shows leads to an Examiner article that breaks down the data. Each article links to the polls and the raw data. After looking though the data, it becomes obvious that the analyst was spot on. The links are there for everyone to see. Click on the stats if you have questions and add up the percentages for yourselves. When one takes into account the high levels of party loyalty, the truth becomes apparent. Again, trust, but verify.
The ultimate question is, why skew the data for President Obama? The answer to that is simple.
Polls can be used as a weapon. The result is a de facto means of voter suppression. Those that may be hoping for a Romney victory may see poll after poll with President Obama supposedly in the lead, and believe that it’s not worth voting. Even if it were to peel off 1% or 2%, it could end up having an effect on the election. If you don't believe so, ask Al Gore if a scant few votes can make a difference.
This is not the result of some grand liberal media conspiracy. Rather, it is a time honored technique that liberal-leaning groups have used for years. This is nothing new.
Two Gallup polls that came on Thursday should have the Obama administration worried. Even though the numbers were slightly lopsided and they were polling registered voters instead of likely voters, the polls showed bad news for President Obama. One poll showed Obama and Romney tied at 47% each, while the other showed Obamas approval rating back down to 46%.
In an age when it seems like every news company and organization has an agenda, it always helps to read between the proverbial lines. When you look through the samples that each poll puts out there, the truth beomes clear.Obama does not have an unsurpassable lead, and Romney is not a weak candidate.
You missed this then ,
"I should have said ‘many’ polls" at #9 correcting #7
I am sure MSNBC found a poll too that showed Dems ahead at the time, irrelevant as Newspeak
but that doesnt explain all the freepers here saying that all the polls they saw Republicans were not doing good, or in one case great when that 2010 FR post HEAR clearly showed that multiple polls were showing Republicans winning a landslide’
Notice there was not one comment on that FR poll post calling those polls meaningless.
Definitely mass hypnosis, Rush maybe?
Human nature, my FRiend. Karl Rove used to be a hero here, with many "Rove, you magnificent bas***d!" quotes appearing almost daily. Then he said something a few didn't like and he was thrown out like yesterday's trash. Same happened to Ann Coulter, Marco Rubio, the list goes on and on.
If it's any consolation, spend a little time trolling over in DUmmieland. They're saying and doing the same things we do. And like us, they believe every poll is rigged, every lost election was stolen through voter fraud, etc.
Back to my initial point, it's human nature, especially when emotions are running high and so many of are deeply invested (emotionally and financially) in our side. Yes, the MSM is in the tank for Obama, but we can either constantly bemoan that fact, or work our tails off to get-out-the-vote. I'm for the latter.
Yes or a D+4 that I've read. Something between the 04 and the 08 elections.
Even if some polls may be skewed in one direction or another, they are actually collectively indicating the same thing - Romney losing to 0. No question about that.
The aggregate trends are all pointing in the same direction, even if the exact numbers may be slightly off. And we should believe these aggregate trends, more than the hysterics of Freepers in denial.
We saw the same characters saying the same things here in 2008, but as you point out, when polls were all indicating massive Republican landslides in October 2010, no one complained about MSM conspiracy theories.
Fox News polls SELDOM have good news for Conservatives. This has held true pretty much since I started watching them years ago. They will only have good news for conservatives when the reality is, a near landslide is coming.
The problem is the company that does the polling for them. Opinion Dynamics is NOT Fox News but a polling company. Why is it they lowball our side in their polls, consistently? I don’t know. I don’t know why Fox News uses them. All I know is the history.
Rasmussen is far more accurate by results than Fox News.
You accuse others of being in denial. Denial is not limited to one side in the great poll debate.
2010 was a landslide for a REASON. Turnout was very high on our side and not so for the other side.
Republicans are now a larger slice of the electorate than they were a few years back, and independents are a very large slice.
Turnout models MATTER. Partisan sampling balance MATTERS. These are used to weight the sample results and mess with them.
If polling is OFF because of methods or weighting or for whatever reason, then electoral college projections will be equally off.
There are polling experts here...people who have followed it and analyzed it for years...who are explaining why the polls could be OFF right now. They have valid, reasonable points to consider.
You have taken their opposite side and accused all of them of being in denial.
Really???
Denial is a two way street.
” The best indicator that Obama is in trouble, is his frenzied campaigning in battleground states, and his neglecting of his job at the White House.”
YEP
Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 for his national polls. I’d assume he is also weighting his state and battleground polls in the Democrat’s favor.
Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 for his national polls.
+++++++++++++++
That sounds about right for Raz. What is your source?
Polls 6 weeks out are close enough, skewed enough, that nobody can say this election is ‘over’.
The validation tests have been run on these polls and they are a big FAIL. Simple reason: They are running with 2008 turnout models, results are just reporting pretty much the D/R split. Yes, if 2012 is like 2008, Obama wins; big duh there. But we know 2012 will be more like 2010 than 2008. What’s changed since 2010? More economic uncertainty, more poor growth, $2 trillion in more debt, and Obamacare’s burdens, taxes and regulatory folly is still out there. Are the American voters that stupid?
We dont know if 2012 will repeat 2010 or 2008, so dont believe the polls and dont disbelieve them either. In Sept 1976, Gerald Ford was down 10 pts, by election day, it was a squeaker; in 1948, Dewey was ahead in all polls, until election day when he lost. And we know the Reagan story: Gallup had Carter up by more than they have Obama up now, yet Reagan won by almost 10 pts. Just know the fat lady hasnt sung on this election, not by a long shot.
I do know this as well: Obama is a failed President running the most dishonest and dishonorable campaign run in a long while. What can we do about that?
Get every Republican and independent to reject it and call Obama out on it. That’s more productive that letting the pollaganda get to us.
I’ve read it in various poll analysis. He was just using Rat +1 then upped it to Rat +2.
This site shows a slight shift towards Obama.
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/2012/04/cnnorc-presidential-poll-released-416.html
It was Romney +5. Now only +2. That movement is exact opposite of what Dick Morris says his polling shows. He says there has been a shift back towards Romney as Obama’s convention bounce has faded. He says his poll shows Romney +5.
This site says Romney +8.
Just curious, are you saying (thinking) that he WILL very likely or certainly lose or that he can still turn things around or some unknown event could change the direction?
Two of my FRiends on another thread just told me that MR will win in a landslide, so I appreciate your frankness.
No, I am not saying he will likely lose or certainly lose, only that if the election were held today, he would definitely lose. But the election is not today, it is a few weeks from today, so I don't know (and the polls don't know) how it will turn out.
All is not lost. The difference is small- it is not like it was in 2008 at this point in time. Romney can easily make it up and win the election from here. So we should not lose heart.
All I am pointing out is that the polls are all telling the same story, including Republican leaning polls like Rasmussen.
And yes, Romney may well win in a landslide. It is possible, but it would be a big turnaround from here. The polls today don't indicate a landslide for Romney at all. But it could happen.
Hope that is clear.
While a lot of what you say is spot on isn’t also true that there are just a lot of states that you are never going to turn over. Many will always be blue and many will always be red. As it got closer to voting time it was easy to see that McCain could not carry the states he needed to give him a victory. All but the most ardent GOP supporters could see that! People were doubting the numbers coming out of the polls then as they are now but the old wise ones of FR were could see it simply that he was not carrying the states he needed. So i think polling out of these particular states might be a better indication than the country wide one especially if the difference is inside the possible margin of error!
This will be no 2008 but it will be no 2010 either. Rs taking the House from Pelosi and not endearing themselves to voters, and Obama on the ballot will rally many more Dems to vote than did in 2010, and look at the Demographics. But there is no way Obama can revive 2008.
I appreciate your opinions today.
I forgot to add,
Romney has been far less than inspiring as candidate to put it mildly. That is a huge problem.
The one Republican I really like and no it is not Ryan, is Scott Walker, But I am sure if he was in congress he would become just like the others.
i believe SOL has a good point on the lackluster performance of the 2010 tea party critters being a downer, as well as the bambam being a down ballot motivator for them...
i just dont see much enthusiasm *for* mittens...we could easily see the lowest turnout in history...
I think you mean lowest turnout in history for a POTUS race. Midterms are always much lower turnout.
This year anyone who desperately wants Romney to beat Obama needs to pray for a cold rainy day on the blue and more importantly swing states, about 9 or 10 of them, to keep Dem turnout low as it was in 2010.
I agree and have said this for 6 election cycles here now and been accused of all manner of lovely
used to seem like only myself and Chet99 against all the folks calling us traitors for saying polls in the aggregate have not been wrong since Dewey really
but this go around if we get close to the 2010 GOP and white voter turnout we will win and beat the samplings
a big if but possible
You are very wrong about 2010 Bray.
It may have taken them a while but by the end all the leading experts acknowledged the obvious fact that Republicans would take the House by a sizeable margin. All the polls agreed, dozens of rat incumbents were trailing. You must have been reading Nancy Pelosi’s twitter feed.
I agree with you on the probama polling this time, they mostly use 2008 turnout models. But this looks close right now, not like a landslide.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.