1) I see no evidence so far anywhere that the turnout on the Dem side will equal 08. I'm at a college campus and see no enthusiasm for Obama that I saw in 08. Not close. I personally think that the "yut" vote could fall by 40% (including defectors to Romney.) Morris is right about blacks. Their numbers will be down, closer to 04. 2) Gary Johnson will siphon as many druggies from Obama as from Romney. I am concerned about Goode in VA, but history shows, whether Anderson in 2000, Perot in 92, Nader in 2000, that 3d party candidates poll better than they perform (the exception---and it was important---was Perot in 1992). I think he'll end up with 1-2 as people see the horrible alternative of Obama. 3) it's early, but we are seeing nothing of the advantage Dems had in absentee voting in 08. 4) a massive shift in voter registration (2 million ) has occurred in our direction, not even counting the additional shift of Dems to indies.
In short, so far I think the polls are badly off.