If the same proportion of Republicans, Democrats and independents cast ballots in 2012 compared to 2008 — a high watermark for Democrats — Romney could have the edge on Election Day, the poll indicates.
...I am wondering if there was a typo? Seems to imply the poll was assuming a larger turn out for Democrats than they had in 2008? But then how can Obama be up 11 percent in poll among Independents and still only win by 1 overall if this is so? Incomplete data...and the data provided seems not to fit together.
I think many of these polls are assuming 110% Dem turnout over 08. Not gonna happen. Wouldn’t be prudent.