I do not know if it is 55%, but I agree there is some % in 2008 for the states that Obama will lose this time around. I can not see his % going up in any state and it will likely go down in most.
Your 55% rule says Romney will win:
1. Colorado, Obama won with 53.66% in 2008
2. Florida, 50.91%
3. Indiana, 49.85%
4. Iowa, 53.93%
5. Minnesota, 54.06%
6. New Hampshire, 54.13%
7. North Carolina, 49.70%
8. Ohio, 51.38%
9. Pennsylvania, 54.47%
10. Virginia, 52.63%
This would lead to a Romney winning the electoral college by 331 to 207.
Your rule of thumb is pretty good. Still my view is that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin, 56.22% in 2008 or Michigan, 57.33%, or Nevada, 55.15%, than Pennsylvania. I am also not so sure about Minnesota.
I do think from that list Romney is likely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.
I agree with you on MN, it violates my rule, I don’t think i will swing romney even though it was slightly under 55% in 2008.
Wisconsin though was slightly over 55% in 08 and Romney will likely win that one.
Basically end of the day, this race isn’t a race at all.. I am not someone who easily dismisses polling, but it is beyond clear that for whatever reason, design, or not, the polls are just not effectively picking up what is going on on the ground fully.
Yes many of the polls are so ridiculously weighted D that they need to be laughed out of the room.. Others are not so bad, but still do not accurately reflect the race in their overall numbers.
What is interesting is that the polling is picking up in the internals trends, very important ones, but the end numbers are not fully reflecting what the internal analysis states..
I truly think this entire election is bread and circuses. I think Obama already knows he’s lost and has already lined up his retirement.. the entire thing is just for show.