This is another laughable poll....
Look, as far as the rust belt goes, and OHIO is part of the rust belt, here’s the breakdown...
Obama isn’t up 5, Obama isn’t going to win OH, IA, IN, or WI.
PA & Mi are battleground IF R/R decide they wish to fight for them and MN and IL are almost certainly safe.
Obama will not win a single state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008. This whole thing is a joke. Obama up 5 in Ohio??? Not in a liberals wettest dream.
I do not know if it is 55%, but I agree there is some % in 2008 for the states that Obama will lose this time around. I can not see his % going up in any state and it will likely go down in most.
Your 55% rule says Romney will win:
1. Colorado, Obama won with 53.66% in 2008
2. Florida, 50.91%
3. Indiana, 49.85%
4. Iowa, 53.93%
5. Minnesota, 54.06%
6. New Hampshire, 54.13%
7. North Carolina, 49.70%
8. Ohio, 51.38%
9. Pennsylvania, 54.47%
10. Virginia, 52.63%
This would lead to a Romney winning the electoral college by 331 to 207.
Your rule of thumb is pretty good. Still my view is that Romney is more likely to win Wisconsin, 56.22% in 2008 or Michigan, 57.33%, or Nevada, 55.15%, than Pennsylvania. I am also not so sure about Minnesota.
I do think from that list Romney is likely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio.