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Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania (Obama 47 Romney 45)
Pittsburgh Tribue-Review ^ | 09/22/2012 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 09/23/2012 3:57:41 PM PDT by nhwingut

Link Only...

(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; 2012tossups; obama; pa2012; pennsylvania; poll; poll2012; romney
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To: tanknetter
I keep hearing time and time again about these mysterious "private" or "internal" polls that campaigns rely on, which are supposedly more accurate than any of the published polls. I am willing to believe they may exist, but have yet to see any evidence or credible source describing them. If someone has that knowledge, or a believable link, I would be appreciative to see it.
41 posted on 09/23/2012 4:58:12 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

Romney shouldn’t spend in PA - yet - but the Super Pacs should. Saturate both Philly and Pittsburgh markets, move the needle, and force Obama to react on the air.

Obama cannot keep up if we spread the map and saturate Blue markets.

DRAIN OBAMA DRY NOW. They cannot admit to the MSM there will be movement against them in blue states, so they cannot overtly raise a lot of money.

The only problem is that the pro-Romney PACS may not have enough money to throw around. They should, and any wealthy conservatives that haven’t written 7-figure checks should be ashamed. They are consigning their children and grandchildren to debt, despair, and darkness for the remainder of their lives.


42 posted on 09/23/2012 5:03:36 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: nhwingut

Wow. I wonder how accurate this is. Rasmussen just released a poll with Obama up 51-39 in Pennsylvania.


43 posted on 09/23/2012 5:04:07 PM PDT by Laura722
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To: nhwingut

Remember the 2010 elections? Rats are trying to make us forget they were destroyed last time out. And things are worse now.


44 posted on 09/23/2012 5:04:27 PM PDT by 9422WMR (Life is not fair, just deal with it.)
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To: Holly_P
I think most freepers are smart enough to realize that the coal counties in a given state will go against the Usurper but the heavily populated cities will go for the socialist swine. Parasitic cityslickers don't care about the energy problem, they just assume the lights will always be there.
45 posted on 09/23/2012 5:05:14 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: nhwingut

Yesterday Rasmussen said Pennsylvania was Obama by 14 points.

Somebody is not working sober.


46 posted on 09/23/2012 5:15:38 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: nhwingut

See, this is what is so frustrating about these polls. We just had a PA poll from RASMUSSEN-—who should be reliable-—showing a big Obama lead in PA. Now this. WTF?


47 posted on 09/23/2012 5:17:46 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: nhwingut

Don’t waste time or money in Pennsylvania.

Oldplayer


48 posted on 09/23/2012 5:24:24 PM PDT by oldplayer
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To: LS
Did you read the really pathetic column by Scotty Ras trashing Romney this week.
It sounded like Peggy Noonan bs.

Ras has been battered by Axelrod and Nate " Daily Koz " Silver and I think he has buckled to their pressure .

He changed his national poll from +1 Rep to +2 Dem for no reason and did it quietly.
I suspect his state polling has been pressured to use the 2008 exit polling data too.

49 posted on 09/23/2012 5:24:33 PM PDT by ncalburt (QUIETLY CHANG)
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To: hinckley buzzard
I keep hearing time and time again about these mysterious "private" or "internal" polls that campaigns rely on, which are supposedly more accurate than any of the published polls. I am willing to believe they may exist, but have yet to see any evidence or credible source describing them. If someone has that knowledge, or a believable link, I would be appreciative to see it.

You should, as a starting point, reference this thread where GOP pollster John McLaughlin went into some details about the MSM polls being BS.

I've worked campaigns, albiet a while ago, and I have lots of friends still working them. There are always internal polls, and those polls are designed by intent to tell campaigns where they need to send their candidates/surrogates and where to spend their money. They are also, as I know from both experience and knowledge from friends, often quite different from the MSM ones.

The devil here is in the details. Or specifically the internals. Polling is very much an art, not a science, and pollsters take the results they receive and plug them into fairly complex models that encompass things like demographics, partisan/ideological affiliation and expected turnout.

The three most critical items to look at in any MSM poll right now are Partisan identification, where the independents are trending and voter enthusiasm.

The current MSM polls are showing, by and large, an unreasonable partisan advantage to the Dems. 2008 was a D+7 election. Some polls out there are showing D+9 to D+13 advantages (although the trend in the last couple days seems to be contracting on that). So ask yourself, is it reasonable to assume that the Dems are going to have a turnout of 2 to 6 points GREATER than the historic/unprecedented turnout of 2008?

The MSM polls are also showing greater enthusiasm by GOP/Romney supporters (enthusiasm was in the Dems favor in 2008) and Indies generally (there have been a couple polls not showing this) trending to Romney. One by 10 points. So now ask yourself, why are polls showing greater GOP enthusiasm and Indies breaking for Romney also showing him getting his a** kicked?

While I don't have any insider knowledge of current Romney polls, it's well within reason to believe that his campaign has projected turnout models for each state (and nationally) based on better and more realistic assumptions and projections (so NOT a Dem turnout higher than the historic 2008 election).
50 posted on 09/23/2012 5:41:16 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: nhwingut

This is very confusing. I saw a Rasmussen poll a few days ago which shows Obama up 51 to 39 in Pennsylvania. These polls are driving me nuts. Just everyone go out and vote, that is the most important thing we can all do


51 posted on 09/23/2012 5:43:17 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

Unskewedpolls.com says differently. Romney up 7.8%


52 posted on 09/23/2012 5:45:11 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: nhwingut

Man, I would really like to see a string of ads featuring the people Romney has helped over the years. The oness at the convention and the ones on Beck had me in tears at times and they could just be compressed into an ad. If you can make someone cry with a political ad you’ve got them, especially given the narrative that Mitt doesn’t care about the poor.

Does anyone know if any of the outside groups are planning something like this ? I know Romney won’t do it himself as he does this stuff in secret for a reason. If one of the outside groups comes up with ads like that they’ve got my money.


53 posted on 09/23/2012 5:47:17 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: 9422WMR
"Remember the 2010 elections? Rats are trying to make us forget they were destroyed last time out."

And in 2010 the press was saying the GOP was in trouble and might not survive. But then the press is largely made up of ignorant jackass suck-ups.

54 posted on 09/23/2012 5:56:41 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

I think they would do just fine working Ohio and taking the market spillover into Western PA. I would do a hard, heavy, energy independence, pro coal ad.


55 posted on 09/23/2012 6:12:14 PM PDT by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
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To: Lysandru

The MC for the Emmys just asked the audience if any of them were voting for Romney. About half the audience started clapping. I almost fell out of my chair. We were just channel serving and stopped to hear the answer. It was amazing to hear!


56 posted on 09/23/2012 6:16:05 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Lysandru

I don’t know this poll, the Trib definitely is the right leaning paper in the pittsburgh area, but this poll certainly reflects what I am empirically seeing in my daily conversations with people.

The very idea that Obama has support in PA anywhere near his 2008 level is LAUGHABLE. Any poll showing Obama up 10 or anything like it in PA is fundamentally flawed.

PA is within striking distance if it is fought for, not saying the Romney/Ryan camp will fight for it, but it is winnable if they do. The idea that OHIO is in play or IA is just as laughable.

Obama will not carry a single state he didn’t get at least 55% of the popular vote in 2008 period.


57 posted on 09/23/2012 6:22:20 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: tanknetter

I work this campaign twice a week and it seems that we are indeed poll takers for the most part. The phone system here in FL is impressive. The dialing is automatic, responses are keyed into the phone and two pushed buttons leave a message and free you up the instant you hear the first words from an answering machine. If you put your head down and just work, you can easily make 200 calls an hour.

Every call that is registered as a wrong number or a disconnect along with other unknown phone number addresses is fed into a different system that generates “door knocking” lists. We are sent out with scripts and bubble result pages that are scanned once we return to the office. Of course we go out with a bunch of literature for unanswered doors andhand outs and we say a few kind words to try to convince and undecideds we meet. But by and large I have been a poll taker giving Gov Romney his “internal poll”.

Given that the Romney office is 15 miles away the nearest obot office is 5 minutes, mischief has most certainly been on my mind. But I am not sure I could stand the smell in such close confines.


58 posted on 09/23/2012 6:27:16 PM PDT by lovesdogs (Nevermind what I post...I have clothespins handy and will vote for Mitt.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I live in PA and I can tell you ANY POLL and I don’ care who is giving it that shows OBAMA with a lead in PA ANYWHERE near what he had in 2008 is flat out wrong.. why its wrong, I couldn’t say but his support is GONE evaporated...

If Romney doesn’t fight for PA Obama will likely win with a 2-5% margin at best. ANY Poll showing him up 10 points or anything close to 2008 here is laughably off base.

Obama will not win any state he did not carry 55% of the popular vote in, in 2008.

PA is very much a battleground IF they republicans decide to fight for it, so far it doesn’t seem like by media buys that Romney/Ryan are buying here, and that could be nothing more than strategic decisions, but believe me, Obama up 10 in PA is not remotely accurate.


59 posted on 09/23/2012 6:27:36 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Holly_P

When you’re done puking don’t forget to vote and FIRE Obama.


60 posted on 09/23/2012 6:28:41 PM PDT by bigoil (Study Thy Nixon)
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