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Romney Double Digit Lead?
Independent Journal Review ^ | 9/21/2012 | Kyle Becker

Posted on 09/22/2012 6:00:35 AM PDT by markomalley

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents. Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.


TOPICS: Editorial; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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To: markomalley

A fifty something advantage to Romney would not surprise me. Only the most insanely lickspittle party loyalists or Fauxsheviks could support Obama at this point.


21 posted on 09/22/2012 7:36:37 AM PDT by Psalm 144 (Voodoo Republicans. Don't read their lips. Watch their hands.)
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To: FreedBird
Obama is buying a home in Hawaii. It will be ready in Jan. 2013. Maybe he already understands the polls are controlled by Democrat operatives and the MSM is the Democrat Party at work each day to fool everyone.

Either that, or after he wins he'll sign an Executive Order moving the Presidential Palace to Hawaii. Boo Yah!


22 posted on 09/22/2012 7:38:20 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: COBOL2Java

Hes moving away from the mainland to Hawaii to escape the coming chaos that he is purposely creating here.


23 posted on 09/22/2012 7:56:17 AM PDT by txgirl4Bush (2012 can't come soon enough!)
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To: kindred

Your post was to long to quote, so I’ll just say that I completely agree with you. It’s nice to know that others think the same thing I’m thinking.. thanks!


24 posted on 09/22/2012 7:57:54 AM PDT by Kratos
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To: markomalley

There is no way you get to a 52.5% Democrat sample unless you are intentionally skewing the polls. This is more than mere pro-Democrat bias. Obama sued Gallup for showing him losing the race, and the other pollsters are doing whatever they can to avoid a similar fate. Obama is a tyrant who has no regard for freedom of speech or of the press, and the pollsters know it.


25 posted on 09/22/2012 8:15:35 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: LS

I have to wonder if Nate Silver “cell phone” effect is the Leftist equivalent of Conservative 2008 wishful thinking about the “Bradly Effect”. The Leftist seem desperate to find some reason, like Conservatives did in 2008, why their candidate is not doing better in polling then they think he should.

I doubt phone usage has changes so much in 4 years that this massive under sample due to cellphone use that Silver claims is really there. I suspect the number of cell phones in use were pretty similar in 2008 to today. I doubt the numbers have changed that much.

Silver is basing his assumption on an unprovable just like Conservatives did in 2008. He fails to realize that polling is not like Baseball stats. In Baseball you either hit the ball or you don’t. In polling there is a large measure of uncertainty that requires pollsters to “guess” at their sample mix.

Silver wants to apply his expertise in baseball statistics analysis to election polling analysis, it is an apples to oranges comparison.


26 posted on 09/22/2012 8:25:31 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: nwrep; Dr. Pritchett
Only in an alternate universe, conservative fantasy land is there a 4% party ID gap in favor of Republicans

So Rass who actually polls for this and came up with that number, which happens to match up fairly well with current party voter registration figures, is "living in fantasy land" while you who base your statement on nothing stronger then your own opinion are dealing in reality?

Please explain to us then why the Media pollsters, who base their sample on an assumption of turning out more Democrat voters in 2012 then they did in 2008 are not also living in fantasy land?

Let us assume, like you do, that Democrats have a 3-4% party registration advantage.

Now reweigh the pro Obama polls down to that sample mix.

Well look at that, re-weighing the polls to the +4 Dem sample you want to use gives Romney either a slight lead or a tie.

The same thing Rass is showing in his polling.

27 posted on 09/22/2012 8:31:38 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

I read somewhere that Rasmussen’s party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 — and not the part identification he had in the August survey.


28 posted on 09/22/2012 8:40:30 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: chrisnj

yep! could work both ways, just gotta get out there.


29 posted on 09/22/2012 8:44:55 AM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: FreedBird

I can’t believe, even if Obama’s internals show him as losing badly, that he would just throw in the towel with 7 weeks left. That’s just not the style of Democrats. They will give it everything they got. His disinterest in what’s going on in the Middle East may, in fact, show he believes he’s winning big or will win big by cheating and chicanery.


30 posted on 09/22/2012 8:48:16 AM PDT by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: markomalley

“The mainstream media are rigging the polls”

Studies of polls in the past have shown how they are conducted.

1. A list of registered voters is drawn from public records.

2. Phone calls are made from 10:am to about 3 p.m. Who is in their home at this time?

3. Widows on Social Security;the unemployed;people on government assistance, mostly.

4.Minorities are disproportionately represented because they have higher unemployed or governement assisted- rates.

This is a perfect population to skew the results in favor of Democrat thinking irregardless of the party afilliation.

And how many cautious (if not frightened )people do not want to be thought of as racists. Just answering the phone poll shows a compliant personality to begin with.

Remember the Reagan-Carter race? The polls showed Reagan losing right up to the last few days of the election. Then Reagan won by a landslide. Yes...Romney is no Reagan but the case can be made that Obama is perceived as worse than Carter.


31 posted on 09/22/2012 8:48:51 AM PDT by firefox ((Vote Democrat...Its Easier Than Thinking!))
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To: markomalley

I think there could be something to this. I saw a Yahoo headline today that said “Romney Campaign Trails in Crucial Ground Game.”

I just couldn’t help laughing when I saw that! I think the MSM knows that we aren’t buying their bogus polls, so now they are trying out this “Romney trailing badly in ground game” narrative to try and depress us.


32 posted on 09/22/2012 9:04:15 AM PDT by lquist1
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To: markomalley
When I cast my vote on Nov 6 it is about one thing only - the Lame Stream Media is totally corrupt and must go the way of the dodo bird OR amend the 1st Amendment in some fashion to allow them to be sued for LYING and OMISSIONS beneficial to one party.
33 posted on 09/22/2012 9:22:54 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: markomalley

Both campaigns have internals, if you see Obama start campaigning in PA, WI, MI than you know they got serious problems in their own internals...


34 posted on 09/22/2012 9:26:18 AM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The political mirage of something for nothing; has ruined many a nation.)
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To: COBOL2Java

Like that picture. So it’s true, he really is the first gay President.


35 posted on 09/22/2012 9:32:55 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Someday our schools we will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
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To: txgirl4Bush

Hawaii will probably protect him from warrants and summons also. I think it’s the safest place for him to go (next to Indonesia or Kenya) to avoid arrest or prosecution.


36 posted on 09/22/2012 9:48:35 AM PDT by CPO retired
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To: WashingtonSource

[ I read somewhere that Rasmussen’s party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 — and not the part identification he had in the August survey. ]

Yes, Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 sample.


37 posted on 09/22/2012 9:58:04 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Hotlanta Mike

I still can’t get Manchelle’s forlorn, sad look out of my mind as Bath-House Barry gave his final speech at the DNC convention...she looked totally depressed, didn’t she? (I think she knows they’re gonna lose BIGTIME.)


38 posted on 09/22/2012 10:12:00 AM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
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To: markomalley

Romney needs a bump that peaks on election day.


39 posted on 09/22/2012 10:15:40 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: txgirl4Bush
He's moving away from the mainland to Hawaii to escape the coming chaos that he is purposely creating here.

Then Reid will make sure the Capitol is completely cordoned off to keep out all the smelly commoners.

40 posted on 09/22/2012 10:17:23 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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