PING
Headline Richmond Times Dispatch this morning:
“Two polls favor Kaine, Obama”
My gut reaction is the Allen campaign is lagging whereas I am hopeful Obama will lose VA because of an ABO vote rather than a Romney vote.
Sigh...this is 2008 all over again. There were so many threads on FR back in 2008 in which posters proved McLame was ahead in polls that showed him behind. Wasn’t true then; probably not true now. I hate to sound negative, but this just seems like deja vu to me.
Just heard on Fox that Ozingo is leading by 7. These polls are enough to make you crazy.
The pollsters and media types, who want to try and suppress the Romney vote are wasting their time. As a matter of fact, it just might backfire on them. They just don’t know that we cannot wait until November 6th gets here. Instead of Romney supporters saying: “Aw, it’s not use to vote; Obama’s gonna win”, it could cause the already, non-too-enthusiastic Obama supporters to not bother voting because “he’s gonna win and he doesn’t need my vote”. I heard people say that in times past, when the polls showed their guy way ahead. They said: “He doesn’t need my vote to win.” Yeah; go ahead, fudge those polls; you dummies.
The sudden post-DNC convention reversal of Obama’s fortunes is, IMO, manufactured and a psy op to deflate Republicans, make many think going to the polls is just not worth it.
Due to reptile expos and other snake related journeys, I’ve been to the Fairfax/Manassas area quite frequently in the last month and a half and Romney signs are everywhere.
Anecdotal, sure but for every sign you see, there’s 200 people of like mind.
[a “statistical average” thing]
I have noticed a lot of sample manipulation in recent phone polls which I have answered.
After you are done answering to the main poll questions, they ask a series of demographic questions, supposedly to ensure even distribution of various groups.
The most recent one was really invasive, i.e. your religion affiliation answer caused a salvo of irrelevant questions like how often do you go to your church. The only reason for such curiosity is to make you impatient and drop the call, therefore making your answers to the main questions void.
Resist the temptation and answer fully to make your voice heard!
Also, I claimed to be an 18-29 year old Pacific Islander girl with no party affiliation - let them try to dismiss that! :)
Polls show Obama is leading. Good. I hope it stays that way because then Romney will win. Think about it.
I did an off the cuff re-adjustment on one of the Virginia polls on here a couple of days ago and ended up with Romney ahead by 4-5%. This is nothing that someone who can kinda-sorta do math in their head couldn’t do.
The Obama based polling firms (i.e. any of them based within the MSM like Reuters/Ipsos or NYTimes) will continue to oversample Democrats in larger and larger numbers to “show” how Obama’s winning. Right now two or three of the ones in this article are using a D35 / R25 split - and the race is STILL within the margin for error!
They will skew the respondent pool however they have to in order to protect Obama. I’m only partially kidding when I say I expect to see an article which reads “Obama takes 55-45 lead in latest poll!” with “respondents comprise the staff at the White House” in 3 point font buried deep within.
There is a saying that goes “torture statistics long enough and they’ll say anything you want”. This is a prime example of that truism.
When it comes to polls, always, always, always, look at the sample sizes and methodology (likely voters, registered voters, adults etc...). Always.
The only thing that matters is voter turnout. Obama voters are more likely to stay home. Will they? Pray for rain on election day.
VA Ping!
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Some pollster called today. I told him to call back November 7th.
I appear to be on the list for an ongoing phone tracking poll. Every week I get a call that asks the same questions.
One reason at least one poll is not reporting accurate numbers is that I lie to them - but just on every other question I am asked. I always select that I’m voting for Obama.
Statistics is a funny thing. “Poll Sampling” error is a reflection of the possible statistical variance of a sampled subgroup. For 1000 people, it’s on the order of 3% “error”. - but only if they tell the truth.
What the statistics don’t and can’t show is the error inserted by people like me who completely lie on some questions, and tell the truth on others. My selective truthfulness is something that cannot be quantified by a roomful of pollsters and statisticians. The error inserted by just one sample like me greatly diminishes the credibility of any conclusions they draw.
I figure if they call me uninvited, they deserve what they get.
I could just be a cranky SOB, but it makes me smile to think about the hopeful Obama-supporting pollsters compiling my data point thinking that their guy is “looking good in Virginia”