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Battleground Polls: Could Obama Lose the Popular Vote but Win the Election?
ABC News ^ | Wednesday, September 19, 2012 | Chris Good

Posted on 09/19/2012 9:58:17 AM PDT by kristinn

George W. Bush did it in 2000. So did John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison.

Could President Obama be next?

It’s not often that a presidential candidate wins the election while losing the popular vote, but polling suggests it could happen again in 2012 if the race tightens just a bit.

A handful of new polls today show President Obama leading in important battleground states. Surveys by CBS-New York Times-Quinnipiac rate him ahead in Virginia (50-46 percent) and Wisconsin (51-45 percent), while erasing a Romney lead in Colorado to pull ahead narrowly (48-47 percent).

The last batch of swing-state polls, released Thursday by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, showed Obama leading in Ohio (50-43 percent), Florida (49-44 percent) and Virginia.

That’s good news for Obama, and if the election were held today, they indicate that Obama would be the favorite.

But national polling remains very close. Since Romney secured his party’s nomination in April, neither candidate has gained much separation.

President Obama’s single-digit convention bounce has mostly evaporated. ABC News-Washington Post polling showed him leading Mitt Romney 50-44 percent after the conventions, and Gallup’s daily tracking poll concurred. Now, Gallup shows the two candidates virtually tied: Obama leads 47-46 percent, the exact same numbers Gallup reported as the GOP convention began in Tampa.

SNIP

But at various points in the election cycle, polls have shown Republicans more excited about voting in November 2012 than Democrats. If a lagging economy and a lack of excitement deflate Obama’s vote totals in safely Democratic states, boost Romney’s total in red states, and makes swing states more competitive, Obama could surpass 269 Electoral College votes while seeing Romney become the next Al Gore.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; enemedia; obama; polls; romney
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To: Emperor Palpatine

Some of the FR ideological favorites (Chamber of Commerce, globalists, free traders, corporate America) who never condemned them for supporting lax enforcement of illegal immigration (for cheap labor) changed the demographics of several GOP safe states. That is why GOP is struggling to win the electoral college. VA, CO, NV are states that come to mind. You want Latino voters, conservative social values with a socialist government will win them over. Romney has about 24 percent, need 30+ percent to negate the Dem advantage. Like it or not the Latino voters are the king makers in many states including former safe GOP ones. Buchanan is correct when he said demography is destiny.


41 posted on 09/19/2012 11:10:30 AM PDT by Fee
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To: Emperor Palpatine

“...America will not survive another 0bama term.”

I hate to have to break it to you but you’re beating a dead horse. America (as we know it) is not going to survive regardless of which sock-puppet makes the White House his home for the next four years. America’s fate has been sealed by a hundred years of shyster banking and subversion by Marxist politicians. Obama will get us there in three or four years while Willard will string us along while he makes a few million dollars more than he has now.

Flailing at that horse is only going to disturb the flies.


42 posted on 09/19/2012 11:11:16 AM PDT by oldfart (Obama nation = abomination. Think about it!)
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To: kristinn; LucyT; little jeremiah; azishot

A very good poll because it has no lies or MSM participation. It has no voter “opinions,” just registrations.

Mind you, the poll was up to August and no 9/11 foreign policy debacle yet!

It made a key point, RATs NEVER won when their registration was BELOW +6.9, while Republicans won even being -1.4!!

I believe that we’ll win in what I call a “mudslide” that’s appropriate for the fag in the BathHouse and his communist cabal.

Beware, troll attraction alert! They have to knock this one down and FAST!

http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/


43 posted on 09/19/2012 11:27:50 AM PDT by melancholy (Professor Alinsky, Enslavement Specialist, Ph.D. in L0w and H0lder)
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To: SoCal Pubbie
Nixon may have had a popular vote plurality in 1960. They count all the Democrat votes in Alabama as Kennedy votes even though the Democrat electors split--what was on the ballots which the voters saw? It's hard to know what percentage of them wanted Kennedy and what percentage favored Harry F. Byrd.

Of all the times when the "loser" of the popular vote won the electoral college vote, his leading opponent was under 50% of the popular vote, with the possible exception of 1876, where Tilden may have had over 50% of the popular vote (hard to know with a lot of voter fraud and vote-suppression going on).

44 posted on 09/19/2012 12:00:37 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: kristinn

Heh. Already shifting to this what if now that the latest attacks on Romney aren’t having the impact they thought they would.

All the 47% clip did was refocus Romney.


45 posted on 09/19/2012 12:07:30 PM PDT by goodolemr
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To: kristinn
MSM signals PLan B for Operation re-elect Obama.

ABC's top of the hour radio news just reported from a Miami sandwich shop that they could only find voters who are "fed up with both parties" and are staying home this election.

That's plan B, depress voter turnout. Make you think that the other guy is staying home, that nobody supports your candidate, so why should you?

-PJ

46 posted on 09/19/2012 12:10:43 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

You nailed it.

Here’s a poll that has history behind it. This will combat the “it’s over, 0b0z0 wins, etc...”

Look how many 0b0z0-will-win-poll trolls are here on FR. One of them is advocating losing the presidential, the Senate and a 60% chance to lose the HOUSE! S/he advices us to hang in there till 2016!


47 posted on 09/19/2012 1:02:41 PM PDT by melancholy (Professor Alinsky, Enslavement Specialist, Ph.D. in L0w and H0lder)
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To: kristinn; Izzy Dunne
Great post by Izzy:

For the last two weeks we have been treated to the narrative that Barack Obama is surging at the polls, Mitt Romney is in trouble and unless there is a massive change in direction it is all over.

Simply put this is a lie.

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year but you might say: “Hey, Datechguy, you’ve been hitting polls all year, why can’t THIS poll be wrong?”

That’s a good question, we can answer it by asking another question: Does this poll of party identification correspond with the results of national elections?

Lets take a look:

2004 George Bush wins re-election

The closest the Republicans come to democrats in registration is Sept at a .6 in September. On election day Democrats had a registration advantage of 1.5. Yet not only did George Bush win re-election with that disadvantage but the GOP took 3 senate seats and 3 House seats over 2002.

2006 Midterms Revenge of the left:

In January the GOP was the closest they would be .6 off but by November the Mark Foley scandal was still big news and on election day Democrats had a spread of 6.1 points. This carried them to a net gain of 31 house seats & 5 seats.

2008 The coming of Barack Obama

The year of hope and change. The closest split was 5.6 in January & in September after the Palin Pick but by election day not only was the split 7.6 for Dems but for the first time (Feb) A party had identification over 40%. The Democrats kept that number over 40% 8 out of 12 months that year reaching a high of 41.7% the largest number in this 9 year sample for either party. With these figures it’s should be no surprise that Barack Obama win but Democrats picked up 8 seats in the Senate & 21 Seats in the house.

2010 Midterms The Rise of the Tea Party

2010 proved conclusively that timing is everything for the first time in the nine years, the GOP took an advantage in poll registration from -2.9 to plus 1.3 in one month, and that month was November.

Additionally the 37.0 figure for the GOP was the highest for the party since Dec 2004. At the very same time the 33.7 figure in December was the lowest figure for democrats EVER.

Correspondingly the GOP gained 6 Senate seats (not counting the Jan Scott Brown Race) and in the house picked up 63 seats more than democrats picked up in 2006 & 2008 combined.

These results since 2004 seem to indicate the poll is reliable. So what has it said lately, lets start with 2011 lets look at 2011

This is the year of the great fights between the GOP House & the president and it’s the most interesting year of the lot. The lead changes hands 6 times during the year as the country tries to figure out what it wants and for the first time EVER Other was in the lead, (Aug) tied with the GOP (33.5) ahead of democrats (33.0) other was ahead of the GOP 3 times in 2007.

Now lets look at that 2012 chart again:

At no time during the year do the Democrats have a registration advantage vs republicans, the gap closes in July & re-separates in August. The low point for the GOP was July for 34.9 and the high August at 37.6 For democrats the high was 34.0 in June & July the low was 32.4 in Feb

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Can these number change? Well the biggest 1 month swing I’ve seen is 4.2 Oct-Nov in 2010 the biggest 3 month swing was Dec 2007-Feb 2008 6.9 in favor of Democrats at the rise of Obama.

Tell me with the economy in the tank, and the new trouble in the Middle East, what is the prospect of a swing of that size to the Democrats happening again right now? Moreover even if that record registration swing repeated itself right now this would give democrats an advantage of only 2.6 points.

I’ve covered a lot of national polls on this site over the last year and all those polls ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX have one thing in common.

Not a single one of those polls had a sample with a GOP advantage.

As Rush would say: Zip, Zero Nada.

Not only have none of these polls had a GOP advantage but the closest we saw was a D+4 poll.

Doug Ross via (@NumbersMuncher & @AriFleischer) has a great chart on his site that I’ll reprint here:

In every single poll showing Barack Obama ahead on this chart the sample is at least D+4 Even if the biggest swing in history takes place in the next 3 months toward the left that is 1.4 points above what the party split will be.

All of the figures I’ve cited are from a source publicly available. The Media know these figures, the left knows these figures and the Networks know these figures.

Yet they are still using polls with huge democrat samples and representing them as real.

I don’t know what that tells you but I sure know what it tells me

“Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell”!

The election of Barack Obama was the biggest con ever perpetuated on the US Public, the polls the media is reporting these days is a close second.

Update: CBS belowns itself, D+13 REALLY?

Update: I stayed up late tweeting this out and had this tweet from a leftist named Mr. D who made this incredible assertion:

@datechguyblog I love it..most polls skew conservative but to hear GOP bigots cry over polls is hilarious. #tcot #Wow

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Being not only fair-minded but also sane and rational I asked for some data, the exchange was….interesting

@datechguyblog Proving the sky is blue, to a bigot, isn’t worth a cold fart in hell. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Oh I’m now not only a bigot but it’s as clear as proving the sky is blue so who needs data?

@datechguyblog I’ve said it. The end. #tcot

— Mr D (@Blackjedi50) September 17, 2012

Hey I can take a photo of the sky to prove it’s blue, if all these polls skew GOP you would think you can produce at least 1 to show it, but not this is the left I’ve said it so it MUST be true.

Talk about hide the decline.

Update 3: Great example of my point in the PPP Virgina Poll. Poll claims Obama up 50-45. Poll Sample +3 Dem

Actual registration split in Virginia? GOP +3

Update 4: I should stress that none of these figures are an argument to be complacent, to not make the calls, to not engage and to not fight for every vote out there. The registration trends are in our favor but apathy is fatal. Be cocky but not lazy.

Update 5: Instalanche Thanks Glenn & Powerline picks today, thanks guys.

Update 6: Linked by Hillbuzz, Ace, Neoneocon, Best of the Web, Before it’s news, polipundit, Evil Blogger Lady and I’m told mentioned on the air by Rush Limbaugh.

Thanks to you all, welcome to all the new readers and check out the site, the radio show (latest episode available by clicking on my fedora above) Nice to have you here.

Update 7: BTW for those who don’t know I like Rush have been arguing all the objective data shows the Democrats are not only losing but “Demoralized as Hell” click on the words “Ride Right Through them They’re demoralized as hell” for the full series and if you are a Rush fan you will want to read this or the short version here.

Update bottom: One more thing. The MSM will pay Politico & the Morning Joe people to put out this stuff, my stuff is only possible because of you, any help is appreciated



48 posted on 09/19/2012 1:51:12 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper
Hey I want to point out that I do not deserve any credit for that info. It's not my research.

Look at the thread I put it in, somebody else posted a link to it, and claimed that the graphics were not copiable.

I just applied my HTML-fu to prove them wrong.

Here is the original article.

49 posted on 09/19/2012 3:23:02 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Uncle Slayton
“The GOP Controls the House and if it were to come down to Romney winning the popular vote while losing the Electoral College vote, the House would have to take actions to follow the wishes of the majority of the voters.”

Huh? If 0bama wins the Electoral College he will get four more years and there is nothing the House can do about it. Nor should it. When Romney wins the popular vote, I guarantee he will win the Electoral College, so it will be a moot point.

50 posted on 09/19/2012 4:58:00 PM PDT by HenpeckedCon (What pi$$es me off the most is that POS commie will get a State Funeral!)
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To: EGPWS

Nixon won the popular vote.


51 posted on 09/19/2012 5:00:48 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: EGPWS
Don't think so !
I am pretty sure that Nixon won the popular vote 1968.

Popular vote
Nixon 31,783,783
Humphrey 31,271,839
Wallace 9,901,118

I think Bush-Gore in 2000 was the first case of that in modern times.

52 posted on 09/19/2012 5:05:10 PM PDT by Reily (l)
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To: kristinn

It’s pretty meaningless to compare State polls to National polls if completely different entities are doing the polls.

Obama won by 7+% in 2008. He won Ohio by a little over 4 points, Fl. by around 2, and Va by around 4, meaning these have a GOP bias of 3 to 5 points to overcome. Not easy to do.

If the election were dead even in popular vote, and Obama won all the states that had a Dem bias last time, he would win 272 to 266.

The Karl Rove formula is 2-3-1:
1)2 easy ones, Indiana and North Carolina.
2)3 harder big ones that have a GOP bias, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
3)1 more state

1) and 2) bring is the same as above, bring the EV total to 266 for Romney.

I thing it’s more likely something happens which causes the race to break one way or the other than that it will wind up super close.


53 posted on 09/19/2012 5:22:28 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: HenpeckedCon

“When Romney wins the popular vote, I guarantee he will win the Electoral College, so it will be a moot point.”

In a super close election, there’s no telling what will happen. I think there were 6 super close states in 2000, withing 1% IIRC: Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Florida. Gore won 4 out of the 6, but it didn’t matter, because of Florida.


54 posted on 09/19/2012 5:38:25 PM PDT by TomEwall
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