Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Battleground Polls: Could Obama Lose the Popular Vote but Win the Election?
ABC News ^ | Wednesday, September 19, 2012 | Chris Good

Posted on 09/19/2012 9:58:17 AM PDT by kristinn

George W. Bush did it in 2000. So did John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison.

Could President Obama be next?

It’s not often that a presidential candidate wins the election while losing the popular vote, but polling suggests it could happen again in 2012 if the race tightens just a bit.

A handful of new polls today show President Obama leading in important battleground states. Surveys by CBS-New York Times-Quinnipiac rate him ahead in Virginia (50-46 percent) and Wisconsin (51-45 percent), while erasing a Romney lead in Colorado to pull ahead narrowly (48-47 percent).

The last batch of swing-state polls, released Thursday by NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, showed Obama leading in Ohio (50-43 percent), Florida (49-44 percent) and Virginia.

That’s good news for Obama, and if the election were held today, they indicate that Obama would be the favorite.

But national polling remains very close. Since Romney secured his party’s nomination in April, neither candidate has gained much separation.

President Obama’s single-digit convention bounce has mostly evaporated. ABC News-Washington Post polling showed him leading Mitt Romney 50-44 percent after the conventions, and Gallup’s daily tracking poll concurred. Now, Gallup shows the two candidates virtually tied: Obama leads 47-46 percent, the exact same numbers Gallup reported as the GOP convention began in Tampa.

SNIP

But at various points in the election cycle, polls have shown Republicans more excited about voting in November 2012 than Democrats. If a lagging economy and a lack of excitement deflate Obama’s vote totals in safely Democratic states, boost Romney’s total in red states, and makes swing states more competitive, Obama could surpass 269 Electoral College votes while seeing Romney become the next Al Gore.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; enemedia; obama; polls; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last
To: kristinn

It all depends on who is counting the votes... remember?


21 posted on 09/19/2012 10:12:26 AM PDT by oldfart (Obama nation = abomination. Think about it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

“George W. Bush did it in 2000.”

Only because California went so overwhelmingly for Gore.

While Gore’s total popular vote over Bush was 500,000 votes, his margin in California alone was a couple of million.....

Do the math and you can see why the Dems are always talking about eliminating the Electoral College that essentially eliminates the effects of “piling on” in certain large population states.


22 posted on 09/19/2012 10:14:51 AM PDT by Forty-Niner (The barely bare berry bear formerly known as Ursus Arctos Horribilis.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

Zero might just win if people vote third party or stay home because Romney isn’t “pure” enough for them.

There’s a clique of these cement-headed clowns right here on FR.

Imagine that...


23 posted on 09/19/2012 10:16:12 AM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("On the ascent of Olympus, what's a botched bar or two?" -Artur Schnabel)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

What about that Popular vote movement, which now requires electors is some 10+ states to vote for the winner of the national polualr vote, REGARDLESS of the outscome of their respective state vote...they would change their mind faster than thos who supported the Hitler/Stalin pact.


24 posted on 09/19/2012 10:16:46 AM PDT by ken5050
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Slayton
The GOP Controls the House and if it were to come down to Romney winning the popular vote while losing the Electoral College vote, the House would have to take actions to follow the wishes of the majority of the voters.

No, that's only if there is a tie in the electoral college. Whoever wins the electoral college wins -- the popular vote is completely irrelevant.

25 posted on 09/19/2012 10:16:46 AM PDT by NonZeroSum
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

Saying that George Bush failed to win the popular vote in 2000 ignores the rampant voting fraud all over the country that year. In countless precincts, more votes were counted than there were registered voters. In Florida, CBS (-and others?) called the election before the polls were closed, causing a quarter million Florida Republicans to stay home. We had the bizarre Carnahan trick in St. Louis of polling hours being extended (illegal, and clearly pre-planned). Plus, we must not forget that then-Vice President Gore sent out millions of voter registrations to non-citizens. NOBODY should accept the lie that Bush failed to win the popular vote in 2000. He won despite millions of illegally cast votes because Republicans stood their ground in Florida, waging a courageous battle of wills against the Democrat tyrant liars who were disputing chads, punching ballots from the backs of their cars and “finding” extra ballot boxes.


26 posted on 09/19/2012 10:16:51 AM PDT by Missouri gal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

None of this matters, because the MSM told us that Romney lost the election last week and again on Monday. If he keeps on losing the election every few days, then he’ll wind up winning the popular vote but lose the electoral vote, or something.


27 posted on 09/19/2012 10:18:12 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (Speak Up, Mitt!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoCal Pubbie

Maybe he is refering to 1968 and 1992 where the winner did not receive a majority of the popular vote (but a plurality) but won the election.


28 posted on 09/19/2012 10:19:12 AM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Emperor Palpatine
Zero might just win if people vote third party or stay home because Romney isn’t “pure” enough for them. There’s a clique of these cement-headed clowns right here on FR. Imagine that...

Are you playing 'devil's advocate' again?

29 posted on 09/19/2012 10:20:01 AM PDT by Just mythoughts (Please help Todd Akin defeat Claire and the GOP-e send money!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: ontap
I see that.

My sixth grade teacher then was a DFL'er and had some wishful thinking I guess. ; )

30 posted on 09/19/2012 10:22:01 AM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: EGPWS

No, it isn’t going to happen.

Obama’s high margins in states like California guarantee that he won’t.


31 posted on 09/19/2012 10:24:20 AM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: JCBreckenridge

California makes the reverse more likely to happen.


32 posted on 09/19/2012 10:26:53 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Just mythoughts

Nope.

I meant that one.

We should all be willing to crawl over broken glass to vote for Willard because America will not survive another 0bama term.

No, Romney wasn’t my first choice either, but compared to the Marxist we have now, Romney’s almost Goldwater.


33 posted on 09/19/2012 10:29:30 AM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("On the ascent of Olympus, what's a botched bar or two?" -Artur Schnabel)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

If 90 percent of the commies and illegal aliens in NY and California vote Obama, he can pile up huge numbers of votes and easily win the popular vote. Who cares? The rest of us aren’t bound by the extreme liberalism of a few populous states. The nation was wisely set up to ensure that the president was elected by a broad swath of the nation.


34 posted on 09/19/2012 10:32:44 AM PDT by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EGPWS
Did Humphrey not take the popular vote, yet lose the election?

Nixon got a plurality but not a majority.

Nixon 43.4%
Humphrey 42.7%
Wallace 13.5%

35 posted on 09/19/2012 10:33:44 AM PDT by KarlInOhio ("Government is the only thing that we all belong to"=implicit repeal of the 13th amendment for all.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Emperor Palpatine
Nope. I meant that one. We should all be willing to crawl over broken glass to vote for Willard because America will not survive another 0bama term. No, Romney wasn’t my first choice either, but compared to the Marxist we have now, Romney’s almost Goldwater.

This election is Romney's to win or lose. We all saw his performance during the primaries. He can repeat that performance again or go back to living off his investments. He wanted this gig, so let him lead. Oh and before you come unglued I have not yet decided IF I can vote for him, but, I do like Ryan.

36 posted on 09/19/2012 10:34:17 AM PDT by Just mythoughts (Please help Todd Akin defeat Claire and the GOP-e send money!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Slayton

The GOP Controls the House and if it were to come down to Romney winning the popular vote while losing the Electoral College vote, the House would have to take actions to follow the wishes of the majority of the voters.


The President is elected via the Electoral College not the popular nationwide vote.


37 posted on 09/19/2012 10:34:17 AM PDT by deport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kristinn
Well... were that the case, here's where suddenly California comes into play.

http://www.theblaze.com/blog/2011/08/09/california-votes-to-relinquish-electoral-votes/

38 posted on 09/19/2012 10:35:16 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ingtar

Exactly so. If Obama loses the popular vote - he ain’t winning the election.


39 posted on 09/19/2012 10:35:46 AM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: kristinn

I don’t think that will happen. His unpopularity is highly, highly, under-reported.

The media loves...even WORSHIPS Obamugabe, and they refuse to believe or report on a contrary point of view.


40 posted on 09/19/2012 10:40:05 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson