Virginia is different for 2 reasons: a large black population and a relatively good economy (ironically due to a defense industry based economy that Obama is gutting after the election). Romney will win Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio before he wins Virginia.
Good point, but I also think Romney will win Virginia before he wins New Hampshire.
As someone who spends a lot of time in the Old Dominion, I believe the state is starting to break for Romney, for a couple of reasons.
First, the defense sector, which is critically important for Hampton Roads and northern Virginia, is bracing for sequestration, which will immediately put 200,000 Virginians out of work, including many at the state’s largest employer, Newport News Shipbuilding. Predictably, The Zero has shown no leadership on sequestration and truth be told, he’d be happy to double his defense cuts, which is what sequestration will do.
With layoff notices possibly going out before election day, look for a huge turnout in places like Suffolk, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and the York County/Williamsburg area, where many military retirees and defense contractors reside. That will be enough to offset the minority vote in places like Norfolk, Portsmouth and Hampton, especially when you look at the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters.
Same for northern VA. Yeah, there are lots of federal employees in those suburbs, but there are thousands of defense contractors as well. If Obama can’t roll up the big pluralities in those areas like he did in ‘08, he can’t win Virginia. It’s that simple.
One more thing: his stance on coal will generate a record turnout in southwestern Virginia as well. That should be enough to put Romney over the top, and return George Allen to the Senate.
WI-10
IA-6
OH-18
(34)
VA-13
(13)
Compared to 2008 results, in that mini-scenario Mitt comes out 21 EVs ahead...I’ll take that.
But would much prefer all four.