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To: GR_Jr.

This poll has been posted three times today. I don’t know of two other polls. This is a poll of ADULTS and without knowing anything else you need to adjust it by 4. Then, on top of that, they OVERSAMPLED Dems to make up the difference. WaPo and WSJ have both been very poor, as they were in 2008.


37 posted on 09/18/2012 5:51:07 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS; GR_Jr.
This poll has been posted three times today. I don’t know of two other polls. This is a poll of ADULTS and without knowing anything else you need to adjust it by 4. Then, on top of that, they OVERSAMPLED Dems to make up the difference. WaPo and WSJ have both been very poor, as they were in 2008.

The latest partisan breakdown I've seen in Virginia for voter identification has it 39% R vs. 36% D. This means that while Democrats are undersampled by 4%, Republicans are undersampled by 15%. Hence, an 11% net deficit for the GOP. Indies are thus oversampled by 10%. Given that Indies are leaning slightly Romney, but not enough to overtake an 11% deficit among the total electorate, oversampling them seems to be a new way that the MSM pollsters have cooked up to try to get around the charge of straight-up Dem oversampling (have noticed this in a few other polls the past few days).

Adjusted, I'd guesstimate that the actual lie of the land in VA is closer to a 49%-47% lead for Romney.

45 posted on 09/18/2012 6:13:44 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (You can wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which gets filled first.)
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