The latest partisan breakdown I've seen in Virginia for voter identification has it 39% R vs. 36% D. This means that while Democrats are undersampled by 4%, Republicans are undersampled by 15%. Hence, an 11% net deficit for the GOP. Indies are thus oversampled by 10%. Given that Indies are leaning slightly Romney, but not enough to overtake an 11% deficit among the total electorate, oversampling them seems to be a new way that the MSM pollsters have cooked up to try to get around the charge of straight-up Dem oversampling (have noticed this in a few other polls the past few days).
Adjusted, I'd guesstimate that the actual lie of the land in VA is closer to a 49%-47% lead for Romney.
Thank you. That was my intuition, but honestly I’m getting punchy trying to keep these lying POSes straight.