Posted on 09/18/2012 12:48:56 PM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
Karl Rove's weekly commentary on his updated Electoral Map:
"Four states changed status since last week's Electoral College map.
"Both Minnesota and Pennsylvania shifted from 'lean Obama' to 'safe Obama.' Michigan moved to 'lean Obama' for now. And Kentucky moved from 'lean' to 'safe' Romney.
"Barack Obama now has 214 'safe' Electoral College votes and only two 'lean' states (27 EC votes). These changes come after a week of heavy polling (there were 41 polls conducted in 20 states last week, compared to 13 surveys taken in nine states the week prior)
[SNIP]
"With Kentucky's change, Mitt Romney has 154 'safe' EC votes while three states (37 EC votes) 'lean' in his favor. The states in Mr. Romney's column are unlikely to change in the 50 days left until the election because they are all generally safe Republican states.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
I’m surprised with all the oversampling of Democrats in the polls that Romney has ANY EC’s. It should be an Obama clean sweep!
Rove and his compilation of polling data is a joke! The only poll that matters is on November 6th.
This rove crap is a bunch of Rcp polls averages by each state?
Rove peddles this crap as legit ?
What a hoax !
This includes all the discredited PPP and NBC propaganda polls !
Rove is a huckster !
Wishbones maybe?
This wont be 2008 or 2010. Too many unknowns.
If Romney loses Rove will be proved a fool for sure, I know thats a small consolation prize given O. Alternative if Romney won big then Rove will own the R party again, Kingmaker.
Only a few months ago we were poised for such victories with the Senate and House.
Is Romney hurting us badly down ticket?
What leaves me genuinely gobsmacked, ultimately, is just how many hasty, huffy respondents demonstrably have no clue whatsoever that Rove is (and has been) in Romney's corner since Day One.
They just reflexively... attack. Like jihadis firing their sub-machine guns into the air, and wailing "ULULULULULULULUL -- !!!" ;)
Philadelphia’s vote controls the state, sadly.
There are still no Obama signs around here, Romney/Ryan signs popping up daily, here in the Pittsburgh area.
This state has a few transplants from liberal lands, too, they really do think that even though they’re successful and wealthy, by voting for dems makes them feel good. They don’t redistribute THEIR money, mind you, but it makes them feel good to think that you’re redistributing yours.
Karl Rove and his white board , because he can never remember the numbers
Rove's "internal polls" show republican victory in 2006
So you're saying that Rove has a proven history of OVERestimating Republican support in presidential elections, in other words...? ;)
Surely you jest. The Kingmaker position has already been filled, and she’s not sharing the title.
yep — Philly votes (with some districts supposedly reporting 100%+ participation) and also a lot of New York/liberal transplants who’ve moved into “bedroom communities” — but I’m not giving up, on the hopes that Voter ID will be in place and cut down on some of the fraud.
These are not polls conducted by Rove.
This is a map with a collection of various NBC ,PPP, QU slanted state polls Averaged together !
It’s useless garbage .
Rove’s view counts a whole lot - like $100 million worth - since he’s in charge of one of the two big GOP SuperPACs (the other being the Koch brother’s Americans for Prosperity).
THE SEVEN BATTLEGROUNDS:
CO, FL, IA, OH, NV, VA and WI
NC ... the chatter is that Obama is withdrawing
NH ... very expensive for 4 EVs (since you have to buy the Boston market) AND Scott Brown’s chances of re-election are hurt by “nationalizing” the election in the Boston market
Of the seven remaining battlegrounds, all but one (Iowa) has a competitive Senate race; they’re twofers.
MO ... could be a problem; if I were Rove or the Kochs, I’d have a contingency plan for when the second and final deadline for Achin’ to withdraw passes.
MI and NM ... could still opportunities; plus, they are also twofers. If I were Obama I’d take advantage of the suspension of GOP advertising to move the dial in these two states. But, Silver has them as solidly Democratic.
Minnesota hasn't gone "R" in a presidential election since 1972.
Al Frankenville, in other words.
“but Philadelphia plays too heavily into the vote count in this state, unfortunately.”
Not to mention all those motor voters. Oh, that’s right, we have voter id, now. /sarc
^ THIS ^. All reflexive jihadiesque ankle-biting hereabouts notwithstanding. ;)
a bit, but more than that he has a habit of picking the things that are good for Rove. He finds the numbers that he thinks will make the people paying him happy. If he is Bush’s head stratigist he says “my numbers say Republicans get the majority of House and Senate” even though every other poll said he was laughably wrong. Now he is firmly a media personality, and as such he would rather sell a good story. Now the good story for him could be ‘Romney underdog comes back from certain death!”. But as long as Rove is in the business of entertaining his numbers cant be trusted.
I was at the Fair last weekend and saw a few Obama steelworker shirts and a handfull of those purple SEIU shirts. I saw no Romey signs in West York,or York Township.
Very disappointing.
Okay... but: given that calling PA "Safe Obama" cannot conceivably make his current paymaster (i.e., Romney) even remotely "happy"... doesn't that logically indicate that we should therefore take said statement MORE seriously, rather than LESS?
I think the problems in PA are:
1) Philly
2) Increasing numbers of refugees from NY, NJ and MD who bring their liberal voting patterns with them.
3) Blue collar types in Western PA who are culturally conservative but have bought into the mantra that their jobs depend on keeping Democrats in power (the Murtha effect).
4) The absolute failure of the Catholic Church to drive home how it will be game over for religious freedom if he gets a second term.
That being said it is hard to find any evidence around here of Obama being popular.
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