Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

The Right Sphere ^ | 09/18/2012 | Tom Dougherty

[SeekAndFind]

In an article Monday, Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney, I cited some data gleaned from multiple polls conducted within the last week that demonstrated waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.

While the article was factual (see notes below about how I analyze polls) and was intended to educate readers who are Romney supporters of an alarming trend, it apparently raised a bit of a ruckus. Many readers observed the numbers were inaccurate, out of context, invalid because they failed to account for numerous factors like past voting analyses, and several even called me a Democratic shill.

Nothing could be further from the truth on any of those accounts. I am an ardent supporter of Governor Romney but I am also a political analyst and commentator, and a realist. In politicking the worst thing you can do is fail to address a challenge head-on and this is a challenge for the Romney campaign.

Not that I consider either of these to be authoritative but two articles appeared yesterday referencing a possible change in strategy within the Romney campaign and both, at varying levels, speak to the problem I espoused Monday. Politico published Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled and BuzzFeed released Romney’s New Strategy Turns Right. I’ll make no comment on either here since it is up to the campaign to decide their course of action.

Though today I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the discourse in Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney because further research clearly shows that conservatives and evangelicals are not supporting Romney at levels they supported his two immediate predecessors, John McCain and George W. Bush.

Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.

As before, this chart includes the swing states of Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

The Romney 2012 numbers are obtained from a group of polls of likely voters conducted by pollsters with both conservative and liberal biases, and then demographically adjusted to remove/reduce party bias. The McCain 2008 and Bush 2004 numbers are derived from averaging the results of a collection of exit polls performed in 2004 and 2008 of actual voters. Here again the pollsters represent a range of conservative to liberal biases, and I do not accept at face value any exit poll but they were all remarkably close and are relevant to looking at the very apparent trends.

Notwithstanding the linear drop in support from self-described moderates, which has occurred at virtually every level of campaigning – national, state and local, and focusing on the Conservatives and Evangelicals, we see:

Romney currently has just 0.5% more support from Conservatives than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 7.1% less support from Conservatives than Bush received in 2004
Romney currently has 10.4% less support from Evangelicals than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 25.0% less support from Evangelicals than Bush received in 2004

Even conceding a couple points since the margin of error is greater for exit polling than phone polling of likely voters the trends do not lie or obfuscate the reality that Governor Romney is not getting the support he should from conservatives and evangelicals. Furthermore, the difference in support is so great that an increase of half of the current deficiencies would have Romney holding a comfortable lead over Obama.

I will not draw a conclusion about why and will leave that to individual readers but what is clear is it is not the undecideds or persuadables that could cost Romney the election, it’s conservatives and evangelicals.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Analyzing polling numbers is always subject to individual poll bias, registered vs. likely voters, polling methodologies such as online, robo-calls to landlines, mobile survey apps to cellphones and a plethora of other factors.

Before I use any poll in an analysis I adjust the poll using algorithms of my own that compensate for these factors and establish a baseline so every poll is considered in the same context, or as close as is reasonably possible. Also I rarely quote individual polls rather groups of polls as a weighted average.

Finally, it is true the ultimate poll occurs on Election Day but there is not a campaign in the country that does not rely on polling, both internal and public, to gauge where they are at a given time and what they should do to address the challenges and shortcomings the results dictate. That is professional politicking.

[pgkdan]

The main problem is, when you look at their history, you can’t tell the difference between Hussein and Romney

That is pure unadulterated bull shit. It's also stupid and dishonest!

[pgkdan]

I’m not about making nice with idiots in the hopes that they’ll vote for my guy. If they can’t see the danger facing the country they’re beyond reason. I don’t care if they’re offended, hurt or even amused.

[JRandomFreeper]

Don't be suprised if you lose, then. Calling people (that you need to vote for your guy) names doesn't win elections.

/johnny

[pgkdan]

Pharissees phits!

[Boogieman]

“Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.”

No, that’s not a fact, since nobody has actually “turned out” yet, as we have not held the election. It seems like this analyst has stared at numbers for so long that he forgets they are only a projection of reality, and not reality itself.

[Persevero]

“

I think R. Paul is an absolute disaster

Good God he is the ONLY reason I am voting for Romney. Paul Ryan is the Sarah Palin of 2012.
“

You think I meant Paul Ryan. I meant Ron Paul. A world of difference.

[itsahoot]

You're self righteous and sanctimonious.

Project much?

[jammer]

They’re letting “perfect be the enemy of good”

Another of the quadrenniel, nonsensical canards trotted out to justify a nomination from the Rockefeller wing of the GOP. No one asks for "perfect." The best president of the last century, Reagan, had one or two ideas with which I disagreed. What "they're" asking for is a sincere man who can take a firm conservative stand on at least most of the issues "they" find important.

I'm voting Romney, but I'm not enthusiastic. More accurately, I'm voting against Obama. It's a mistake, like it was a mistake to vote for Dole and McCain. That only encourages the GOP to nominate such non-conservative, loser candidates.

But we've been forced to make a choice. I made mine, but I won't criticize "they" who decided to get off the bus. Either way is a mistake.

[libdestroyer]

“Fine and Obama is not mine, nor is Obama appointed by God. He is also constitutionally illegitmate thus nulling and voiding any authority he has. Romans 13:1-7 was also written at a time when oriental despostism was the rule of the time. The concept of a free society, the rule of law and democratic republic conceived by Christians inspired by God came several hundred years later which was even beyond St. Paul’s knowledge and experience.”

Obama IS appointed by God. That’s Biblical stuff. Although judging by “St. Paul” I’d say you’re Catholic and therefore don’t believe in the sovereignty of God. I’m just trying to explain the mindset of Evangelicals.

[libdestroyer]

“Your point is that you’re complicit in the destruction of our country and surrender to Sharia.”

Are you even hearing yourself when you type incoherent crap like that? Using the same “logic” you use, I could say that YOU, SIR are doing the exact same thing by voting for a left-of-center Republican.

...but I won’t... because that would be stupid and irresponsible.

[libdestroyer]

You want math?
How much debt did GWB rack up before Obama was even in the picture eh?

This is what we get when we vote for moderates. We get the same out-of-control spending, open borders, gun-grabbing etc...

So spare ME your “fall in line” garbage.

[Emperor Palpatine]

Obviously you were never taught what it means to be a team player.

[hedgetrimmer]

The republican party endorsed obama by putting RINO Romneycare rationed medicine for enhancement of insurers power in the health care sector over patients and doctors endorser, and Agenda 21 supporter via massachusetss climate change, soviet planner mitt romney up as the candidate.

They knew how distasteful honest Americans find romney’s record when they selected him, but since they don’t care about America surviving the economic and cultural push to global government, they knew romney would be the right man for their team to finish the job.

Either way the republican elite gets the global government they desire, the American people be damned!

[libdestroyer]

“Obviously you were never taught what it means to be a team player.”

What are you talking about?

[Emperor Palpatine]

What I mean should be self-evident. I see critical thinking isn’t one of your strong suits.

But you just confirmed that my low estimation of your intelligence level was correct.

[jusduat]

It’s the truth that there’s little to like about Romney from
a conservative point of view. But he does seem to be more
in touch with the middle east than the the nonfriend of
Bibi in the white hut now.

[libdestroyer]

“What I mean should be self-evident. I see critical thinking isn’t one of your strong suits.

But you just confirmed that my low estimation of your intelligence level was correct.”

Very nice thing to say... very courteous. Personally I find your “critical thinking” to be lacking as well. However, I have the common sense (although maybe it’s not so common since you clearly lack it) to realize that it’s just my OPINION and not fact.

Your estimations of my intelligence level mean absolutely nothing to me. Nice try though.

Mitt Romney will not receive my vote. You can cry about it if you like. Neither will Barack Obama btw.

I’m a conservative. I’m voting for a conservative.