Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

The Right Sphere ^ | 09/18/2012 | Tom Dougherty

[SeekAndFind]

In an article Monday, Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney, I cited some data gleaned from multiple polls conducted within the last week that demonstrated waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.

While the article was factual (see notes below about how I analyze polls) and was intended to educate readers who are Romney supporters of an alarming trend, it apparently raised a bit of a ruckus. Many readers observed the numbers were inaccurate, out of context, invalid because they failed to account for numerous factors like past voting analyses, and several even called me a Democratic shill.

Nothing could be further from the truth on any of those accounts. I am an ardent supporter of Governor Romney but I am also a political analyst and commentator, and a realist. In politicking the worst thing you can do is fail to address a challenge head-on and this is a challenge for the Romney campaign.

Not that I consider either of these to be authoritative but two articles appeared yesterday referencing a possible change in strategy within the Romney campaign and both, at varying levels, speak to the problem I espoused Monday. Politico published Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled and BuzzFeed released Romney’s New Strategy Turns Right. I’ll make no comment on either here since it is up to the campaign to decide their course of action.

Though today I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the discourse in Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney because further research clearly shows that conservatives and evangelicals are not supporting Romney at levels they supported his two immediate predecessors, John McCain and George W. Bush.

Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.

As before, this chart includes the swing states of Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

The Romney 2012 numbers are obtained from a group of polls of likely voters conducted by pollsters with both conservative and liberal biases, and then demographically adjusted to remove/reduce party bias. The McCain 2008 and Bush 2004 numbers are derived from averaging the results of a collection of exit polls performed in 2004 and 2008 of actual voters. Here again the pollsters represent a range of conservative to liberal biases, and I do not accept at face value any exit poll but they were all remarkably close and are relevant to looking at the very apparent trends.

Notwithstanding the linear drop in support from self-described moderates, which has occurred at virtually every level of campaigning – national, state and local, and focusing on the Conservatives and Evangelicals, we see:

Romney currently has just 0.5% more support from Conservatives than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 7.1% less support from Conservatives than Bush received in 2004
Romney currently has 10.4% less support from Evangelicals than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 25.0% less support from Evangelicals than Bush received in 2004

Even conceding a couple points since the margin of error is greater for exit polling than phone polling of likely voters the trends do not lie or obfuscate the reality that Governor Romney is not getting the support he should from conservatives and evangelicals. Furthermore, the difference in support is so great that an increase of half of the current deficiencies would have Romney holding a comfortable lead over Obama.

I will not draw a conclusion about why and will leave that to individual readers but what is clear is it is not the undecideds or persuadables that could cost Romney the election, it’s conservatives and evangelicals.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Analyzing polling numbers is always subject to individual poll bias, registered vs. likely voters, polling methodologies such as online, robo-calls to landlines, mobile survey apps to cellphones and a plethora of other factors.

Before I use any poll in an analysis I adjust the poll using algorithms of my own that compensate for these factors and establish a baseline so every poll is considered in the same context, or as close as is reasonably possible. Also I rarely quote individual polls rather groups of polls as a weighted average.

Finally, it is true the ultimate poll occurs on Election Day but there is not a campaign in the country that does not rely on polling, both internal and public, to gauge where they are at a given time and what they should do to address the challenges and shortcomings the results dictate. That is professional politicking.

[ansel12]

Since Romney doesn’t meet their exhalted standards for conservatism,

Did Mitt's rejecting the party's pro-life platform 3 weeks ago, disturb you at all? Did you even notice it?

[Republican Wildcat]

Since Todd Akin (92+% ACU Rating) isn’t moderate enough the GOPe cuts him loose to the wind. Why should conservatives stick around when the moderates have nothing but contempt for them?

No, he was cut loose because he made politically toxic comments regarding rape which damaged not only himself but the entire Republican brand nationally. No one did that to him but himself. The fact those comments were politiclaly toxic has nothing with being a conservative, moderate, etc.

[GeronL]

lol.

So find me a candidate that hasn’t said something stupid and backtracked.

You would probably still back Spectre, Crist etc no matter how liberal they were I bet.

[JRandomFreeper]

You certainly have a way with words, and describing the people... that disagree with you... that you need to convince... to vote for your guy.

Calling people names and berating them is a certain vote-getter.

/johnny

[DennisR]

“I’ll write in Palin in 2012. That is 1 vote for Palin, 0 votes for Romney and Zer0 votes for Obama.”

Hm...the result being that because your candidate has ZERO chance of winning, you are wasting your vote. And not negating the vote of an Obamabot. I hope you change your mind.

[ansel12]

No, he was cut loose because he made politically toxic comments regarding rape which damaged not only himself but the entire Republican brand nationally.

Three weeks ago Romney came out against the national pro-life party platform, and returned to his pro-abortion position.

Yet Akin is the one who made the rape gaffe?

[JRandomFreeper]

“Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” - John Quincy Adams.

/johnny

[napscoordinator]

I think R. Paul is an absolute disaster

Good God he is the ONLY reason I am voting for Romney. Paul Ryan is the Sarah Palin of 2012.

[Deb]

What a load of crap.

[Deb]

You’ve lost your mind.

[JRandomFreeper]

How enlightening.

Win many converts with that attitude?

/johnny

[annieokie]

OH, bless their little hearts. WE BE HERE, we have pencils sharpened and ready to VOTE....for the R & R's.

I'm riding my wheelchair to the polls, stoping to pick up a few more that need rides, (lol), nothing will stop us.

[Springfield Reformer]

Romans 13 is still in force. God doesn’t make mistakes, and his truth is truth for all time. The first human king of Israel was also provided by God at the urging of the people of Israel. Not exactly an election, but definitly the consent of the governed (albeit much to their chagrin). Solomon said, under the inspiration of God himself, that there is nothing new under the sun. God can get anyone he wants elected and nothing in this or any other universe can stop him. But like the people of Israel demanding a king at any price, if we give in to our fears and put our trust in fallible men, all while ignoring the many red flags by which God warns us against either of these losers, we may get what we wish for, and one day come to dearly regret it. On such a day it would be fitting to strike the motto from our coins, because we could no longer honestly say, In God We Trust.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

[avenir]

Interesting comments on Romans 13:1-7. The passage fascinates me and makes me ponder. All nations are authorized by God to "punish the evildoer", and in so doing keep order (their job). God has wrath stored up for all of those who went beyond this framework and abused their people.

I found this by Calvin (I'm not a "Calvanist"):

"The Lord, therefore, is King of kings. When He opens His sacred mouth, He alone is to be heard, instead of all and above all. We are subject to the men who rule over us, but subject only in the Lord. If they command anything against Him let us not pay the least regard to it, nor be moved by all the dignity which they possess as magistrates-- a dignity to which no injury is done when it is subordinated to the special and truly supreme power of God."

[napscoordinator]

I see you have the Republican Campaign sign for 2020 already printed up.

[Deb]

Why, thanks, yes i do.

[JRandomFreeper]

It is the traditional Republican method of dealing with recalcitrant conservatives, berate, abuse, and namecall.

Then whine when they don't vote for your liberal.

/johnny

[pgkdan]

This is why you moron.

Right. That's why. You're self righteous and sanctimonious.

[JRandomFreeper]

You're self righteous and sanctimonious.

Wow. I'm sure that got you a vote for your guy.

/johnny