Posted on 09/17/2012 6:50:01 PM PDT by Kaslin
In a campaign season which is on track to go down as the worst ever for cooked polling, one from CBS News and the New York Times has outdone everyone to this point.
Clearly, they didn't like what a properly weighted result would have told them, which is that Mitt Romney is in a deadlock with Barack Obama if one uses Gallup's party affiliation numbers from before Democratic National Convention, or that he's up by five points if one opts for Rasmussen's affiliation numbers. In their latest poll, with registered voters, CBS/NYT not only oversampled Democrats, but they took the number of actual responses and further weighted them towards Dems, as seen after the jump.
Here is the CBS/NYT weighting exercise (found at the very end of the poll in the Scribd document; HT Mike Flynn at Breitbart):
So an 8-point margin among people they actually spoke with wasn't enough. So they weighted it further. There is no support for this action.
Taking the the three key results before weighting from the poll -- namely the Dem margin for Obama, the GOP margin for Romney, and Romney's margin among independents (these margins are among likely and not registered voters, but the margins among RVs were as far as I could tell not disclosed) -- one can see the results I teased earlier based on Rasmussen's party affiliation findings in August and Gallup's from before the Democratic National Convention:
The CBS/NYT poll says that Obama is ahead by eight points with registered voters and by three points among likely voters. Sure, guys. You're not fooling us.
Flynn's wrap: "The polls confirm that the media aren't really biased. Rather, they are active players for the other team." Dishonestly active.
Just proof that these polls are pure DNC propaganda BS. May Almighty God curse their tactics and bring profound misfortune upon them.
ping
My wife and I plan on contributing to the Republican tidal wave!
Excellent info, Kaslin. Thanks.
There is a reason they are doing this. If Romney wins, they can immediately charge that the election was rigged because all the polls showed His Highness clobbering Romney.
They have to cheat. They always have to cheat.
In New York, that weight to Democrat voters is probably correct.
In New York, that weight to Democrat voters is probably correct.
Yep here it is!!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Yes! And may a weird holy man squat on their froot loops.
Actually I believe leftists are doing this so that they can blame the Voter ID law for Obama losing, that way they can riot. I say let the scum riot. I think Romney has already won this election, that is why the Dems are making these bogus polls, because they know their dear leader is finished.
Romney up by 11 with independents in this poll. That’s the only take away and it’s good for us.
The state controlled “media” is working so hard at getting their Child of the Earth reelected that their polls have become nothing but another goofy ‘RAT joke. ALL OF THEM!
I don’t think many who had planned to vote for Romney will stay home or vote for the anointed one on the basis of crooked polls. I doubt it will sway many of the undecideds either.
Skewed public opinion polls are the modern equivalent of the political cartoon.
Just like in 2004 when Liberals insisted that there had to be Republican cheating because all of the exit polls showed Lurch winning.
exactly. thewy want to be able to claim that we cheated. let them claim whatever they want. Let them riot about it too. Let them come looting and pillaging on my property.
The guy who owned the exit poll firm was a former CBS executive. One problem was that his workers were college students, street people, aged hippies, illegal aliens, winos, etc. The exit poll results—which favored Kerry—were supposed to be embargoed until the voting closed. But some gay restaurant critic at the New York Times got ahold of the numbers and starting leaking them to liberal talk radio stations. This may have cost Bush a point or two.
On Sat I did an analysis of the CBS/NYT poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2931353/posts
If you use a turnout model that matches 2010 the results are
Romney 48.6%, Obama 46.7, Undecided 3.6% if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger (IIRC the break is usually 4/1) the results are: Romney 51.2%, Obama 47.5&
Using the latest Ras number for party affiliation (+4.3% R) you get a number of
Romney 50.4%, Obama 44.9%, Undecideds 3.5%, splitting the undecideds the same ration (3/1) we get : Romney 53.1%, Obama 45.8%.
The turnout model determines the poll result.
A very good site that ‘balances the various Obamedia polls (not my site BTW).
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
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