On Sat I did an analysis of the CBS/NYT poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2931353/posts
If you use a turnout model that matches 2010 the results are
Romney 48.6%, Obama 46.7, Undecided 3.6% if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger (IIRC the break is usually 4/1) the results are: Romney 51.2%, Obama 47.5&
Using the latest Ras number for party affiliation (+4.3% R) you get a number of
Romney 50.4%, Obama 44.9%, Undecideds 3.5%, splitting the undecideds the same ration (3/1) we get : Romney 53.1%, Obama 45.8%.
The turnout model determines the poll result.
A very good site that ‘balances the various Obamedia polls (not my site BTW).
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
BTW Flynn is excellent and of course note the Romney lead with independents of +11, anybody think Obama can win if Romney wins by double digits among independents?
Nice work. Thanks for the link.
This is the final poll results before 2004 election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html
That is almost exactly what I predicted (4% ) yielding 320 EVs. The libs are gonna be p!$$&d!