Posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There was a time when images of American embassies under siege and a United States ambassador being dragged through the streets by a baying mob would have represented serious trouble for the administration in power, especially when coupled with obvious dishonesty about the circumstances that led to the debacle and an apparent lack of foresight and prudence on the part of the State Department. If anything might be expected to move the polls, this should be it. Yet the effects of the last week’s events on polling in the presidential race have been: nothing.
Most polls bounce around because the composition of the sample is ever-changing. Pollsters will sample a lot of Democrats, and breathless headlines then allege that Obama is surging–while, at the same time, Romney is leading among independents by eight points. As I have written before, I think the Rasmussen poll is valuable not only because it samples likely voters, but because it uses a consistent methodology that normalizes responses according to the current mix of party affiliation, which is separately tested on a regular basis. Therefore, shifts in Rasmussen’s numbers probably represent real trends, rather than merely reflecting a different sample composition.
So how have Rasmussen’s numbers been affected by the crumbling of Barack Obama’s foreign policy? They haven’t been. At all. Today, Romney leads Obama 47%-46%, not a significantly different finding from those that preceded Obama’s foreign policy disasters.
How can this be? I think it is a manifestation of the frequently-commented-upon polarization of the electorate. As I wrote here, this election shouldn’t be close, on paper, given Obama’s record of abject failure. But so many Americans are now cashing federal checks that self-interest drives many millions to vote Democrat, regardless of the public interest. Another factor is at work, too: more than ever, party affiliation reflects not so much empirical judgments about public policy issues, but deep-seated cultural affinity. As I noted here, the extent to which regular church attendance, or the lack thereof, is a predictor of presidential preference is shocking.
So, when you put those elements together, it seems that fewer and fewer votes are up for grabs. I can relate: it is difficult to imagine circumstances that would cause me to vote for a Democrat for any office. For better or worse, and for good reasons or bad, an enormous number of Americans feel that way. The result is that there are many millions who would rather vote for four more years of failure than vote for a Republican. More evidence of incompetence, whether on the economy or foreign policy, doesn’t sway their determination to vote Democrat.
The conventional wisdom is that the presidential debates are the next events that could shift significant numbers of votes. Maybe, but I doubt it. I will be surprised if the debates have more than a small and transient impact. Given the reasons why most voters align with one party or the other, something as mundane as a discussion of public policy isn’t likely to have much effect.
If all of that is correct, and given that the election now stands within the margin of error in any competent polling, it will come down to which side does the better job of turning out the members of its tribe. We can only hope that the Obama administration’s comprehensive failure dampens the enthusiasm of at least a handful of those whose monetary interest or cultural affinity normally leads them to pull the lever for Democrats.
My mother-in-law just turned 80 this August and she has been living in Oregon 60+ years...she told my husband that this year, Oregon MAY just be in play for Romney!
Finally a sensible article about the polls.
But, Romney is not allowed to call out the 49% who deposit the checks.
Well, the Democrats have the taker and godless votes locked up; what else is new.
Have no fear - remember 2010 and remember CHIK-FIL-A!
If Rush is right then around election time they`ll have no choice but to tell the truth or face irrelevancy after the fact that they screwed up so bad becomes plain to see. Keep up the fight and don`t give up yet, it ain`t over till it`s over.
No, it was in one of the other threads about the video. I can’t copy/paste right now, so I can’t easily link it. I do remember the URL was to twitchy.com.
Spot on. The growing numbers of the parasitic class have grown so quickly and substantially, the percentage of those locked in for Obama are no less than 46 or 47 percent. That's why there won't be a landslide for Romney or any GOP presidential candidate ever again, without the wildcard of criminal charges, nuclear war, etc.
In my travels, I’m finding it difficult to find ANYBODY saying ANYTHING nice about Obummer.
I think most minds are already made up.
And the consensus opinion is to throw the bum out!
Too bad we don’t have a real conservative candidate, with a real spine and a flamethrower for a mouth, but Romney will have to do. Bring on November!
Hinderaker is onto something but I think it’s even bigger and deeper than he frames it here. I think what’s happened is that America is now confronting the age old question that’s had the West racking its collective brain for the last 2500 years or so. Which is, should men be free or should they be subject to the enlightened will of their betters? Our political parties have evolved such that they come down on opposite sides of this question more consistently and over a broader range of issues than ever before. The two answers can’t be reconciled and so we have two totally dug in camps.
So, I think this is about Big Stuff, and I don’t know how a civilization resolves this sort of thing. I guess through historical trial and error. What’s dismaying is that America had it all figured out. We had answered the question clearly and confidently and could have avoided the tumult. But we’ve gone sort of wobbly on our principles and so now we’re being dragged into it.
Convincing the undecideds is very important as well. If you get one of them, that’s like getting two votes, one away from the other guy, and one for your guy. Getting out the vote is only “one” vote, since these were never going to vote for the other guy anyway.
So if the GOP and Dem turnout is roughly the same, then the undecideds get decide the issue.
So both getting out the vote and convincing undecideds is important.
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