Obama isn’t going to win FL or OH, He’s not going to win IA, IN, WI, OH, FL, NC or MO
Florida being in play is laughable to me, SENIORS are people who MOST hate Obamacare, and yet he’s up in Florida... not buying it.
I am not accusing Rasmussen of the blatant nonsense that the other pollers are doing, but he’s missing what’s going on on the ground... and I’m not sure why. The polls this entire season are missing ... What Romney doesn’t have is enthusiasm, but what Obama has is ABJECT HATRED by most of the electorate.. this election isn’t close.
Even with the faulty polls NC is gone.. as is IA.
PA for example polling shows Obama up 11? That’s nonsense, he’s not going to carry PA anywhere close to what he got in ‘08! He may carry it, but nowhere near that level.. the polling is off, and while most are rediculously oversampling dems, others who aren’t to that extreme are still missing things. Very curious indeed.
I am not accusing Rasmussen of the blatant nonsense that the other pollers are doing, but he’s missing what’s going on on the ground... and I’m not sure why.”
It may be, perhaps, that the unusual hatred that is characteristic of this election puts us in sort of a post-polling era? Is it possible that what is going on on the ground is simply not pollable?
Sort of like Chick Fila day?
NOW....on the other hand, we have to remember. The loudest screamers each have only one vote. So you can have 1,000 people screaming at the top of their lungs and they will all vote....but that is still only 1,000 votes.
(The point of comparison of course is if they weren’t screaming, how many would vote? Well, just in light of human nature...that would be less than 1,000....So.....).
All in all, I believe, deep down inside, that you are quite right. I believe the turnout model will be like 2010 but a little better.
And if that happens, obama loses. BUT, what is the polling methodology to accurately observe that? I don’t know. And it might be that NO ONE knows.
We shall find out pretty soon though.
I’m not buying 0 is up in Fl..a few weeks ago, my daughter had tickets to a Romney rally in St. Agustine...she and I decided to go...It was at Flaglar college...there were people there from all over Fl...we were in line three and a half hours and never got in...