Posted on 09/17/2012 6:42:01 AM PDT by mrs9x
Romney attracts the vote of 47% of voters, while Obama has 45% of voters. With leaners, the race is tied at 48%.
“The racist voters who gave the state to Bonzo in 2008 were hardly inspired to get out and vote for.... Creigh Deeds. Nor do they give a damn about state legislative elections. But they will be out in force, voting as often as possible in 2012 for Bonzo and Kaine in Virginia.’
They are going to have a lot of trouble doing that this year. We have much more stringent security than in 2008.
” For every so-called ‘broken glass’ or ‘ABO’ voter on the right, there’s an equivalent on the left, plus Massive Democrat Vote Fraud, PLUS the non-stop media adulation for Bonzo and they are not about to let America’s first melanin-enhanced President get UNelected.”
If God’s involved in this election there is nothing the ememy can do to win. Period! Nothing no matter how hard they try will work and they will lose.
“We hear ‘anecdotal’ crap about enthusiasm among Bonzo voters being down from 2008, and that may well be the case, but where is the enthusiasm for Milquetoast Mitt? If he’d give us some reason for enthusiasm, that would be nice.”
See post #20 & 22.
I had a question this AM for my buddy, Scott in VA, who is just north of me...I’m in Hampton Roads South side...about the sign sightings. He says not too many signs and even running in bumper stickers.
In 2008, my “majority minor” district here was plastered with Obozo signs, full of hopey/changey spirit...
This year NADA!
I hopey this is an indication of disappointment in the changey.
The fact he’s up 2 with 2 days of weekend polling to me signals he’s actually up 4-5 minimal. And its not $4 gas, but watching your president trying to blame a coordinated terrorist attack on the anniversary of 9/11 on a you tube video that will do that.
Obama isn’t going to win FL or OH, He’s not going to win IA, IN, WI, OH, FL, NC or MO
Florida being in play is laughable to me, SENIORS are people who MOST hate Obamacare, and yet he’s up in Florida... not buying it.
I am not accusing Rasmussen of the blatant nonsense that the other pollers are doing, but he’s missing what’s going on on the ground... and I’m not sure why. The polls this entire season are missing ... What Romney doesn’t have is enthusiasm, but what Obama has is ABJECT HATRED by most of the electorate.. this election isn’t close.
Even with the faulty polls NC is gone.. as is IA.
PA for example polling shows Obama up 11? That’s nonsense, he’s not going to carry PA anywhere close to what he got in ‘08! He may carry it, but nowhere near that level.. the polling is off, and while most are rediculously oversampling dems, others who aren’t to that extreme are still missing things. Very curious indeed.
Thanks you for that good news! It is encouraging, and God knows—and I mean that literally!!—we need encouragement!
I am not accusing Rasmussen of the blatant nonsense that the other pollers are doing, but he’s missing what’s going on on the ground... and I’m not sure why.”
It may be, perhaps, that the unusual hatred that is characteristic of this election puts us in sort of a post-polling era? Is it possible that what is going on on the ground is simply not pollable?
Sort of like Chick Fila day?
NOW....on the other hand, we have to remember. The loudest screamers each have only one vote. So you can have 1,000 people screaming at the top of their lungs and they will all vote....but that is still only 1,000 votes.
(The point of comparison of course is if they weren’t screaming, how many would vote? Well, just in light of human nature...that would be less than 1,000....So.....).
All in all, I believe, deep down inside, that you are quite right. I believe the turnout model will be like 2010 but a little better.
And if that happens, obama loses. BUT, what is the polling methodology to accurately observe that? I don’t know. And it might be that NO ONE knows.
We shall find out pretty soon though.
“He won by 19% overall and he won Fairfax county by 4%. The bloom was off Obotulism’s rose only 4 months after assuming office. Most Virginians absolutely hate him and those who support him.”
Well, they don’t seem to “absolutely hate” him now.
Rasmussen’s electoral map now has Obama at 49% in Virginia (Romney is at 48%):
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
Say what you will to discount Rasmussen’s findings, but it looks like Obama’s going to take the state, barring as-yet-unforeseen events.
I hope that something unforeseen happens. If Obama takes VA, we all know what that means...
Flush the toilet, the turd is going down...
ARG has Romney by 5%. There is a 5% margin of error in this poll and that means Obozo can also be 4% down in this state. I look for Romney to pull out ahead comfortably by election day. There is a surge going on and Obuggery is getting hurt by the ME crisis.
Believe me if all it were were the screaming right, I wouldn’t know the polls were off, but I in casual conversation honestly have found NO ONE arguing support for Obama besides those who are died in the wool vote D no matter what types... I can’t find any swing voters I’ve known who voted for him last time that intend to do so again, and just finding a moderate dem who plans to vote for him again is difficult.. I have met more than a few life time democrats who are openly stating they intend to vote for Romney. And I live in PA, not some red state bastion.
If this is what is going on on the ground in PA, and believe me, I’m not wearing blinders, but actively asking anyone who wants to talk about it what they are planning to do and why.. and from the blue collar neighborhood bar patrons who worked the union his entire life, to the small business meetings I attend, I am not running into anyone who I would not put in the ‘hard core d’ category that intends to vote for this guy. Hardly any swing voter, certainly no republican is planning to change sides, and more than a few life long D voters are openly saying he’s a failure and they won’t vote for him again.
THe polling is not matching the ground. The idea that PA is going to go Obama by the same margin as 08 is preposterous, yet that’s what some polling is saying? I ‘m not buying it.
I agree turnout will be closer to 2010 levels than 2008 for sure.. but these polls are beyond sampling problems based on 2008 models, there is something far more fundamental going on.. its like they want to ignore 2010 happened... its just not showing up in the polling for whatever reason.
Rass is clearly starting to pick up on it, as with 2 weekend days in his 3 day sample I read that as a 4-5 point lead not a 2 point lead.. but in reality, I don’t see any way Obama gets over 42-43% on election day.
I am not living or dying by polls, I go by what I am seeing, and I am actively trying to find folks who are planning to vote for O, not ignoring them, and I am making sure to go as far across the spectrum as I can looking for them, and other than traditional liberal bastions I am having one hell of a hard time finding them.. The blue dogs are abandoning him in droves, as are catholics, and those are the largest demographic for a Democrat particularly in the rust belt. YOu can’t lose those groups by huge margins like Obama looks like he will be doing and have a close race here..
The polling is showing trends in the internals but not reflecting them in the net numbers, which I am still trying to figure out, with most other polling oversampling is blatant.. with Rass its not so much, so I’m still struggling to understand the polling, but I don’t have any belief this is a close election.. not by what I’m seeing on the ground.
I believe VA is the only southern state Obama has any shot of holding, but, and this is a big but, this will only happen if the DC area overwhelms the rest of the state.
I do not believe Obama will not win FL, NC, WI, IA, IN, MO, OH.
Time will tell, but I really don’t see this thing being close. It will proabably be closer in the EC than it is in the General just due to population distribution, but I don’t think for one minute this is a close election... I’m just not seeing it.
I’m not buying 0 is up in Fl..a few weeks ago, my daughter had tickets to a Romney rally in St. Agustine...she and I decided to go...It was at Flaglar college...there were people there from all over Fl...we were in line three and a half hours and never got in...
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