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To: profit_guy

If that hold true, the polls being massaged to 2008 numbers are going to be off 12 pts or so. They are weighting plus five to eight dems consistently poll to poll. Giving Obama a lead of 1 to 6. Romney might be up 6-10. That would explain the msm freakout.


60 posted on 09/16/2012 8:45:31 AM PDT by commonguymd (The enemy within is our MSM. War starts there imo. twitter @commonguymd)
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To: commonguymd
Romney is up 6-10 points and their internals show it. That is why you see no panic in the Romney/Ryan campaign right now. They are now shifting campaign resources to states that Obama won by 8-14 points in 2008 - New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Obama is forced to spend money in states he won in 2008 - Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Romney's people are putting those in their win column and moving on.

The media is desperately trying to keep this a "horse race" in the eyes of voters. That is why they are oversampling Democrats by as much as D+10 when even in 2008, the actual turnout was D+7.

Any reliable pollster will tell you that any poll that oversamples Democrats D+2 or more is garbage. In fact, we are likely to see something more like R+2 this go-around which would mean that if all the polls we are seeing were sampled this way, Romney would be up 5-8 points in just about all of them. And considering that undecideds historically break at least 2-1 in favor of the challenger, you get to your 6-10 point Romney lead.

And that, is the state of the race today.

61 posted on 09/16/2012 9:10:40 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: commonguymd
Sp, how do you do that?

2008 doesn't come into play with a random sample of 1300 people.

62 posted on 09/16/2012 9:25:19 AM PDT by muawiyah
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