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To: commonguymd
Romney is up 6-10 points and their internals show it. That is why you see no panic in the Romney/Ryan campaign right now. They are now shifting campaign resources to states that Obama won by 8-14 points in 2008 - New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Obama is forced to spend money in states he won in 2008 - Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Romney's people are putting those in their win column and moving on.

The media is desperately trying to keep this a "horse race" in the eyes of voters. That is why they are oversampling Democrats by as much as D+10 when even in 2008, the actual turnout was D+7.

Any reliable pollster will tell you that any poll that oversamples Democrats D+2 or more is garbage. In fact, we are likely to see something more like R+2 this go-around which would mean that if all the polls we are seeing were sampled this way, Romney would be up 5-8 points in just about all of them. And considering that undecideds historically break at least 2-1 in favor of the challenger, you get to your 6-10 point Romney lead.

And that, is the state of the race today.

61 posted on 09/16/2012 9:10:40 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76
If all accounts are to be believed, 0bama has pulled out of North Carolina.
67 posted on 09/16/2012 1:51:24 PM PDT by Perdogg
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