Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

Examiner ^ | September 10, 2012 | Dean Chambers

[profit_guy]

The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.

[SamAdams76]

Romney is up 6-10 points and their internals show it. That is why you see no panic in the Romney/Ryan campaign right now. They are now shifting campaign resources to states that Obama won by 8-14 points in 2008 - New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Obama is forced to spend money in states he won in 2008 - Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Romney's people are putting those in their win column and moving on.

The media is desperately trying to keep this a "horse race" in the eyes of voters. That is why they are oversampling Democrats by as much as D+10 when even in 2008, the actual turnout was D+7.

Any reliable pollster will tell you that any poll that oversamples Democrats D+2 or more is garbage. In fact, we are likely to see something more like R+2 this go-around which would mean that if all the polls we are seeing were sampled this way, Romney would be up 5-8 points in just about all of them. And considering that undecideds historically break at least 2-1 in favor of the challenger, you get to your 6-10 point Romney lead.

And that, is the state of the race today.

[muawiyah]

Sp, how do you do that?

2008 doesn't come into play with a random sample of 1300 people.

[LS]

That’s true-—I don’t see a massive number of “youts” coming out for Romney, but (and remember, I teach college kids for a living) I see NOTHING of the pro-Obama enthusiasm of 08. I think Obama flat loses at least half that demo.

[muawiyah]

Obama's got 10,000,000 votes to lose before he catches up to McCain.

Keep your hard conversions in mind ~ what does Romney's popularity with Republican voters mean in terms of total votes.

Remember, just because a Democrat voter isn't pulling the lever for Obama doesn't mean he's pulling one for Romney although I do see a Romney sweep in Idaho and Utah.

[LS]

I figure that Obama has easily, EASILY lost 5 m votes already. But more important, these are NOT votes lost in NY or CA or MA but in the "real" America and if 2010 is any indication, it won't be all that close in the EC. Yes, it might be close on a state by state basis, but not in the EC.

You like to play with numbers so here's just a starting formula:

take 714k off Zero's 2008 total for voter purges in just 3 states, then add another 100k illegals who don't come out due to AZ and TX type general enforcement.

take Zero's total of "yout" vote and reduce by 33%, then give an additional 10% on top to Romney.

reduce Zero's black totals by 20%. They will still vote at a 95% rate, but turnout will be down.

reduce Zero's % of the Catholic vote by 33% and give it to Romney. If they leave, they will switch.

reduce Zero's % of Jewish vote by 10 (may be a lot more). You can count them as reductions, but I think they are switches.

flip 15% of all indies to Republicans.

increase GOP 2008 turnout by 3%.

reduce Zero's overall Dem support by 3 non-Cath/non-Jewish and give to Romney.

I have probably forgotten another million.

Now, exclude from your calculations the super Dem states of CA, NY, MA, RI, and VT.

Look at 2008 differential for all other states, apply your calculations.

[muawiyah]

Let's say the Republican drop from 2004 to 2008 is repeated in 2012, and we need another 8,000,000 votes just to stay where we were in 2004. I'll give you 10,000,000 Obama votes ~ 100% of his advantage over McCain in 2008.

I think that's a tighter race than you can imagine.

BW, the Catholic vote we don't already have is probably the one we don't want. That's the non-observant crowd.

[Perdogg]

If all accounts are to be believed, 0bama has pulled out of North Carolina.

[Yankereb]

You, us and millions of others. Don't listen to the polls. They are trying to dispirit us. No one in their right mind would vote to reelect this joker, and there aren't that many crazy people in this country.

You don't have to love Romney, you just have to want to defeat Obama.

The only poll that counts is on Election day. Get out the vote.

[LS]

Well, do the calculations, then we’ll talk further. I know you can. The question is, will you?

[muawiyah]

Regarding voter purges, most of them are going to be simply because someone moved ~ maybe to a new district or out of state.

Republicans move more often than Democrats.

Simple fact of life.

Good chance the greater part of those changes are Republicans and not Democrats. But seriously, 700,000 or so is a drop in the bucket.

[LS]

Well, no. The statistics are that FL, PA, and (I think) VA lost 80,000 Rs and 714,000 Ds. Three swing states alone were lost by only 500,000 votes. I've been through this before. You like to cite the 9m Dem advantage in 08, but over 2m (I think closer to 3) came from IL, CA, and NY. When you subtract those out, then another 714,000, then you're talking a much closer election without even changing a single vote.

But I challenge you to run the scenario #s I gave you.

[muawiyah]

Then it would appear somebody has only done part of the job. The cold hard facts are that people who have higher incomes, which Republicans do, move more often ~ that shows up in change of address files ~ it's a considerable difference in rates too.

Call up richard viguerie to discuss this problem.

It's also entirely possible that Republicans play by the rules and change their registration when they move.

Having spent thousands of hours talking over list management problems with the big boys in the mailing business I read those statistics completely different than you do and would be asking questions about who they got the numbers from.

[muawiyah]

http://voices.yahoo.com/census-bureau-report-americans-move-too-much-2983301.html There’s a popular press rendition of news from the Census Bureau regarding American relocation habits. BTW, for about 20 years I was the guy who purchased all the change of address orders for the USPS ~ which was a huge amount of printing ~ whole forests felled!

[LS]

Do the calculations. You’re dodging.