Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

Examiner ^ | September 10, 2012 | Dean Chambers

[profit_guy]

The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.

[Jaguarmike]

Thank you for your service.

[annieokie]

They don't want to hear from the REAL voters, that would be information overload for them, and a truth they can not handle.

But, I guarantee you, we are HERE and in the holding pattern ready to VOTE.

Fact is, I don't answer my phone to unknown numbers any longer. Keeps them wondering. Let them think they are winning, apathy then sets in on their side.

Curious to know how many of HIS majesties CZAR'S have already sent out their resumes.

[patriot08]

.

If America only knew....

Will America be lost because noone had the guts to expose Obama?

The best Obama exposure site on the net:
(by our own FReeper, Beckwith)

The Obama File
http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_personal.html

The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html

Just a few of the pages:

http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_politics.html

http://www.theobamafile.com/BarackObama.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/FamilyPage.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaEducation.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaPsychology.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaWife.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/ObamaAssociates.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaIconography.htm

.

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[aheckle]

Where did you read that?

[LS]

Right. That’s why, when you use real 2010 splits, Romney is doing well. By even unskewed data, he’s turning out a higher % of Rs than Zero is of Ds. Oh, and between the big voter roll purges and some impressive shifts in party ID since 2008, this simply is not the same electorate.

[BlueStateRightist]

I’m short some cash. Can Intrade tell me the following?

1. American League East Pennant winner.
2. FedEx Cup Champion.
3. Super Bowl Champion.
4. BCS Champion.
5. Tomorrow’s Redskins vs Rams game. Skin’s plus the points?

[LS]

The answer to your question is easy: party ID and participation rates in 2009, 2010,and 2011 much different than in 08.

[Balding_Eagle]

And unfortunately, I have come across lots of self-professed conservatives that would rather have the US become a Stalinist State than see Mitt Romney in the White House.

That is the statement of purposeful self-delusion.

What you most likely have come across is a bunch of conservatives who believe Romney is a greater threat, and shorter path, to socialism than Obama.

[muawiyah]

That, my friend, is definitely magical thinking.

To start with the tendency is for less advantaged factions to abandon a winning party they're being frozen out of for a more favorably disposed losing party. These movements can take decades.

[InterceptPoint]

Not to drop a fly in the ointment, but how do we actually KNOW that an 8% lean toward Democrats is not accurate?

Well we don't but ...

That was the spread in 2008. In 2010 the spread was no more that a point one way or the other and we smoked the Dems.

So it is hard to believe that the Dems can repeat their 2008 performance against a very pumped up GOP/Conservative/Tea party base in 2012. I don't think they can. The only ones who do just happen to run the Dem biased Polling companies.

[SoFloFreeper]

who the heck is Dean Chambers?

[muawiyah]

2010 was much better than 2011. You people came in and trimmed the party and the very next election found us in decline again.

2012 is unlikely to be any better.

[SoFloFreeper]

I have done walking and calling, too, in Broward. Remember, we’re targeting soft Rs and Is....not Ds.

I am a bit encouraged, though, that there is a lot of enthusiasm for Romney...or, rather, to defeat Obamugabe. :) If people are enthusiastic about it in Deep Democrat territory like our neck of the woods, things should be much better in real battleground areas!! :)

Also, have you noticed how much that Bill Clinton commercial for Obamugabe is running on all the local tv stations?? If the communist has to run that many commercials down here, you know he is hurting—he has to convince people down here, who are already Democrat, to vote for him....

[muawiyah]

Sorry, I haven't found any Conservatives who want a Stalinist state, not even the one you have planned for us.

The problem is you imagine that you can win an election by sitting on your thumbs ~ and insulting the very people whose votes you need.

It just doesn't work like that!

[paul544]

2012 will NOT be like 2010. Republican’s will not enjoy the same level of participation advantage.

[MNJohnnie]

Not to drop a fly in the ointment, but how do we actually KNOW that an 8% lean toward Democrats is not accurate?

Well Rasmussen polls for it and professional political analysis and campaign strategists study voter registration numbers religiously

There is no data anywhere that validates this assumption of massive Democrat turnout superiority. The data varys both state by state and pollster to pollster but currently it suggest either a slight lead for Dems, a dead even heat or a slight lead for Repbs. Obama did not even do 8% better then McCain in 2008 so it is an absurd number

Anyone really think Obama is going to do better in 2012 then he did in 2008?

[MNJohnnie]

2012 will NOT be like 2010.

Maybe but it will also not be like 2008 which is what all the pollsters are assuming in creating their polling sample

[BigEdLB]

Obama/Biden will carry only eight states!!!

Something like this? I think I have 10+DC

[MNJohnnie]

Here is a pretty good measurement of party strength by state. You might want to consult this to decide if a state poll is reasonable

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

[M-cubed]

I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago. <<<

Nope..they'll pretty much stay home in their parents basement this time around.....the thrill is gone...Obama didn't give them anything....