[Crimson Elephant]

What are they loosely basing the +10 oversample on? Or are they even trying to come up with a reason?

I wonder what the actual voter breakdown by party ID in Ohio is.

[mmichaels1970]

I wonder what the actual voter breakdown by party ID in Ohio is.

Certainly not even close to +10....not even close. We would not have Gov Kasich if the D's had +10 here.

[PghBaldy]

It’s more conservative than PA, but the econ is better than nationally there so... It sure is NOT +10 Dems. They have a Repub gov for one thing...

[PghBaldy]

I was wrong-the poll looks not as bad. This shows part ID in 2008. :

I know your first thought is always of the samples, so here you go: I’m listing the WSJ/NBC poll partisan split first and then the 2008 exit poll split (in parenthesis) for each state for comparison. And yes, this is likely voters:

Virginia: 31D/26R/43I (39/33/27)

Ohio: 38D/28R/32I (39/31/30)

Florida: 35D/33R/30I (37/34/29)

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/13/wsjnbc-poll-obama-now-leads-by-five-in-virginia-and-florida-by-seven-in-ohio/