Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

NBC releases new oversampled Democrat polls: Ohio D+10, Virginia D+5 Florida D+2
News Busters ^ | September 14, 2012

Posted on 09/14/2012 11:44:00 AM PDT by yoe

NBC is at it again, releasing heavily Democrat oversampled polls in three key battleground states to try and make Obama look good. Problem for them is that not only where these polls taken right after the DNC convention, but the last few days have eroded any bounce Obama got from the convention. In fact, Obama trails Romney nationally according to the latest Rasmussen poll. After his bumbling and stumbling over the middle east crisis, his numbers are likely to sink even more. But for the time being, lets take a look at the three new polls released by NBC to make Obama appear invincible. In Virginia and Florida, the biased polls find Obama up by five on Romney. In probably the most important state in this election season, Ohio has Obama up by 7%, with Obama barely hitting 50%. Problem is this NBC oversamples Democrats by 10 percentage points. The sample of likely voters in Ohio is 38% Democrat, 28% Republican and 32% independent. But of course, when you oversample Democrats as much as NBC, you can nitpick stats that appear to look good for Obama. Check out NBC Obama licker Chuck Todd:

(Excerpt) Read more at fireandreamitchell.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Crime/Corruption; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; fl2012; oh2012; va2012
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-60 next last
To: yoe

Will someone tell me why the Wall Street Journal lends its’ name to this poll? The WSJ is owned by the same people that own Fox (Newscorp), (Of course the Fox poll is pretty much of a stinker also). I still wonder why the WSJ would join with NBC on anything. Anybody got any answers?


21 posted on 09/14/2012 12:27:20 PM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GonzoGOP
OH and VA do not register voters by party. OH being +10 for the Rat bastards is not possible, though. VA +5 for the Rats is unlikely but possible.

FL currently has about 4% more D than R (40% vs. 36%) but many voters, particularly in rural northern Florida, vote solid R but are still registered D.

22 posted on 09/14/2012 12:29:20 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Old Retired Army Guy

If you notice the none of the WSJ sections, except the editorial pages are conservative and even those are occasionally left leaning idiots. There was an anti-Romney article on the 12th by a guy named Kaminski, who doesn’t usually go left. Then, of course there is Peggy Noonan whose anti-Romney screed is being quoted everywhere.


23 posted on 09/14/2012 12:30:47 PM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: yoe

Rasmussen and Pew are the only pols that matter.


24 posted on 09/14/2012 12:31:15 PM PDT by ully2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: charwel

Are you kidding? You actually believe this garbage poll?
Where’s your guts-—NEVER QUIT!
________________________________________________________

Didn’t you notice /s ?


25 posted on 09/14/2012 12:35:31 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ully2

They are the only ones who nailed it the last 2 times. Haven’t seen a PEW lately.


26 posted on 09/14/2012 12:44:04 PM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: sanjuanbob

I love to go over to HillBuzz and read what he has to say. There is a Gay Obama hating Democrat who has more guts and optimism than any 10 Freeper mopes combined. Then again I suspect lots of the mopers are DU plants, having fun with the pasty white Republican Tea Party people here swishing away faux mopery on their Ipad at Starbucks. Some people just have a predilection towards negativity. Could get all Jung here but why, they know why they are who they are. Jesus Crist himself could come down and become President and they would bitch and find something to be negative about. Any Freeper mopers in the Western Pa area, I am testing for my Brazilian Jui Jitsu purple belt Saturday, please show up, get in a line so I can choke you out, would be therapeutic for me and probably help you in the long run, starving the last bit of your semi working grey matter of needed oxygen.


27 posted on 09/14/2012 12:47:26 PM PDT by pburgh01 (No more GWBs, say no to Perry.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: charwel
He's being sarcastic. That's what the /s means at the end of his post. At this point in time, don't pay attention to any polls except Rasmussen. Most of the polls are released by liberal organizations that are trying to discourage Republicans. When we get to within about two weeks from election day, you'll see these pollsters start to unwind the bias in their polls so that their final polls aren't way off from actual election results. That's when you'll see Romney "magically" moving up in the polls, with the final polls showing a very close election.

The liberal pollsters do this every time and it never works for them. I think they do this because liberals are vain front-runners by nature and they get a kick out of thinking they are way out in front. If they had any brains, they would figure out that the best bias to put into polls (for either side) is to slant the polls towards a tie, which prevents both discouragement and overconfidence on your side. These polls are likely to actually hurt Obama by creating complacency and overconfidence among his supporters.

I also suspect that polling is becoming increasingly difficult because of all the technology people use to block annoying commercial phone calls, mainly through answering machines and caller ID. And who has the most phone blocking technology in their houses?...well higher-income conservative business people, of course, who can afford the technology and are busy doing productive work and don't want to be bothered by pollsters and tele-marketers. In the end, the results of this election may greatly surprise all but the very best pollsters.

Just to make you feel better, the last swing state poll I saw from Ramussen (if I recall the numbers correctly), had Romney leading by 46-45. If those numbers are about right, and Romney just take five points on the undecideds while one point goes for third party candidates, then Romney wins the combined swing state vote by 51-48 and wins the electoral vote by a substantial margin. The popular vote could easily end up tied. I think after the liberal exit polling debacle in 2004, conservatives and independents don't pay much attention to polls now and the polls mainly just make democrats get complacent and overconfident. One last thought: watch the attitude of Romney and Ryan, who know what's really going on in their internal polls. They look calm and confident to me.

28 posted on 09/14/2012 12:49:45 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (If knowledge is power, then why is the MSM mafia so powerful?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: yoe

These are the same people who believed Solydra,the Volt,and a so called Arab Spring were what was best for America..?
That Global Warming and homo marriage was the issues of our time?
That spending MORE money, that is not back up by anything, is the solution to our economy?
The moonbeam and magic unicorn people know what is best?


29 posted on 09/14/2012 12:51:02 PM PDT by Leep (I'm a Chic-Fil-- A-merican)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yoe

In 2009, Republicans outvoted Democrats in Virginia by about 56% to 40%.

In 2010, Republicans won 8 out of 11 congressional seats.

In 2011, republicans again outvoted democrats by over 16% — only a remarkable bit of gerrymandering gave democrats a 20-20 split in our state senate, while in the house republicans have a virtual supermajority.

Obama could win Virginia. But there is no way democrats outnumber republicans.


30 posted on 09/14/2012 12:52:34 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yoe

I’ve seen biased polling but the polls this year take the cake. I’m not concerned though. It just means a lot more motivation for our side to get to the polls. If the Democrats and press want to be in denial its their mental health bill later. :-)


31 posted on 09/14/2012 12:56:23 PM PDT by Maelstorm (Now lets return to our regular scheduled deprogramming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Crimson Elephant
I wonder what the actual voter breakdown by party ID in Ohio is.

Certainly not even close to +10....not even close. We would not have Gov Kasich if the D's had +10 here.
32 posted on 09/14/2012 1:12:12 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: PermaRag
OH and VA do not register voters by party.

Sure they do...at least in Ohio. We have to declare our party before we can vote in a primary. The sheer amount of junk mail I get proves it.
33 posted on 09/14/2012 1:18:38 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: All
For what it's worth but take the data with a grain of salt.....

Political Party affiliation by State and other info


34 posted on 09/14/2012 1:41:23 PM PDT by deport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: socialism_stinX

Thanks for explaining the basics to those who may have failed English 101. I wrongfully assumed that everyone on this board understood the sarcasm tag, especially someone with
a 2004 join date!!!

Enjoyed reading your bio and totally concur with your viewpoint and November outcome.
SJB
LQB


35 posted on 09/14/2012 1:49:44 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: yoe

As an Ohioan, let me assure you that +10 for democrats in this state is laughable.

This has been a nearly equally balanced state for generations...not just for years.

It currently has a republican house, senate, supreme court, and governor. If that doesn’t show the ridiculousness of democrat +10, then nothing will.


36 posted on 09/14/2012 1:58:11 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yoe

37 posted on 09/14/2012 2:02:20 PM PDT by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yoe

As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.


38 posted on 09/14/2012 2:05:02 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

As I understand it, all “likely voter” polls are manipulated based on expected turnout of different demographics. So it doesn’t matter how many Ds or Rs they sampled. The final numbers have already been adjusted based on expected turnout of Ds and Rs, men and women, income groups, races, etc.


That’s the purpose of weighting that is applied to the raw data collected. It is an attempt no matter how many you poll to get the numbers back to the basic demographic profile. Some pollsters will provide the weighting factors while others are harder to find.

Also different methods of collecting the data can influence the info. Example, Rassmussen uses a machine to make the call thus anyone that answers can provide the answers whether they be a child, non voter, etc. Also Ras doesn’t make call backs if he gets a non answer he just moves on to another number. Or that is my understanding.


39 posted on 09/14/2012 2:18:26 PM PDT by deport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: Mr. K

How does overall voter registration look in those states? What percentage of voters belong to each party?


40 posted on 09/14/2012 3:00:09 PM PDT by Woodsman27
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-60 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson