Posted on 09/11/2012 7:11:37 PM PDT by dervish
President Obama may be enjoying a slight, if likely temporary, bounce in the polls this week. But one of the surveys showing him with a lead in a tight race over Mitt Romney also provides a breakdown of the data that confirms predictions that he is losing up to a quarter of the Jewish votes he got in 2008. The Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll gives a breakdown of religion along with other demographic groups and shows Obama leading among Jews by a margin of 59 to 35 percent with six percent undecided. While that is still a majority it is a dramatic decline from the 78 percent of the Jewish vote he got four years ago.
Obama has a 46-44 percent lead over Romney in the TIPP poll. That means Obama is suffering from a decline in support throughout the electorate from his 2008 victory when he won 53 percent of the vote. But the president’s loss of approximately 25 percent of Jewish voters this year is not matched by a similar decline in any other demographic group.
(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...
I always thought if anyone could beat Carter’s Jewish vote loss it would be Obama.
It takes real talent to make some Jews flee you for a Republican.
Actually the answer to both of your questions is YES, many American Jews identify more with the hard core left than Judaism. They may have been born to Jewish parents but many do not have true Jewish values which I define as a belief in the One G-d and the divine origin of the Torah. They tend to be totally secular. I will call them “progressive” Jews. Some refer to them as Commie Jews, not a totally inappropriate description. They hate Netanyahu, are critical of Israel and many do support the Arabs rather than Israel.
Among Ultra-Orthodox Jews the picture is complicated by the fragmentation of that community into in a few sects that are virulently anti-Israel because Israel is too secular and they believe that Jewish sovereignty must await the coming of the Messiah. They are in the minority but they have no problem voting for an anti-Israel politician, although that is probably not their primary motive. They are mostly poor, uneducated and unemployed with large families and depend on government benefits, which the Democrats supply.
Still, there are many secular politically conservative Jews and Orthodox religious Jews who support and will vote for Romney. They love America and support Israel. I believe this election will see a large Jewish turnout for the Republican ticket.
Hope this explains some of the issues for you.
Ignore RCP. They throw in a lot of Democrat polls (PPP, Quinipiac, Daily Kos) in their averages.
It boils down to a handful of states: CO, OH, NC, VA, FL. If Romney wins all the McCain states plus these 5 he wins.
VA and NC are starting to break Romenys according to two new polls.
FL is a real toss up, but might slightly lean Romney right now.
CO and OH are breaking in 0bama’s direction, but Romney can change that with a heavy does of realistic negative ads.
A lot of folks also think Romney has a shot to also pick off IA, WI, MI, PA, NH and NV. But I don’t think he does at this point. I’m not so sure he does though.
Torah, not Trotsky.
Torah, not Trotsky.
Torah, not Trotsky.
Torah, not Trotsky.
Torah, not Trotsky.
Maybe they should think about that for a while.
I also look at Rasmussen. He supports Republicans and his polling was the most accurate in 2008.
His numbers are scary too.
178 safe Romney
180 safe Obama
Here’s the bad part among the swing states
15 leans Romney
46 leans Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
But I am sensing the possible beginnings of a shift. Obama sympathizing with the Islamists who trashed our embassies and killed an American in Libya and Egypt will also hurt him I think.
LOL
Unfortunately I think their mantra is
Trotsky not Torah
If it is abortion then how do you account for the perfect record preceding abortion, Jews have never voted republican.
The best republicans ever did was winning 45% of the Jewish vote in 1916.
Abortion had zero effect on the Jewish vote.
>> Abortion had zero effect on the Jewish vote.
BS
So Ras has the essentially tied in the EV’s right now.
A small lead in a swing state means nothing right now for either side.
I was really down in the dumps over the weekend (read my posts) about 0bama’s “lead”. I’m seeing the light now. It’s not over at all.
Thanks. I need encouragement.
You don’t know what you are talking about, abortion had no effect on the Jewish vote.
The Jewish vote did not change since abortion became an issue, the Jewish vote is the same as it has always been.
5
Anytime FRiend....Keep your head. Good always defeats evil. We’ll defeat 0bama.....then worry about Romney!
>> the Jewish vote is the same as it has always been.
While keeping in lockstep with an increasingly radical, Pro-Kill party.
Why does such a large percentage turn away from the Republican Party? Is it because the Republican platform includes: 1) lower taxes 2) pro business 3) small govt 4) support for Israel?
Or is because the party is full of Pro-Life Neanderthals?
The fact is that the Jews have never voted republican in American history, ever, the Jewish vote today is the same as it has always been, abortion did not have any effect one way or the other.
Abortion is not why Jews vote democrat, when they have had the chance to vote for socialist parties, they have, Debs got 38% of their vote in 1920.
Thanks, ansel12. I’m open to the info you’re citing.
It takes a lot of effort to put together the bits and pieces of the pre-1916 Jewish vote, but for this discussion, this simple chart explains what I am saying.
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html
Thanks, I’ll check it out.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
O’Reilly is unwatchable now.
He has no care or idea how ridiculous he has become.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.