[SamAdams76]

Picking up those 9 states will result in 290-248 victory for Romney. However, I think he can do better...Indiana is very much winnable as is Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico. Now we are talking 342-196 blowout.

Damn California, New York and Illinois. Obama gets 104 EVs just for being a shiftless bum with no work ethic.

[barmag25]

Indiana is clearly Romney and is no longer considered a swing state.

I had posted a while back that I think Romney will win Michigan and Pennsylvania. I also think New Jersey, New Mexico,& Minnesota are in play.

[Pollster1]

Picking up those 9 states will result in 290-248 victory for Romney. However, I think he can do better...Indiana is very much winnable as is Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico. Now we are talking 342-196 blowout.

Rather pleasantly, Indiana (which Obama carried) is considered safe for Romney, not even just likely and certainly not battleground. I agree on PA and MI, at least that Romney should contest them vigorously and has a real chance. As for NM, it's a tough sell there - Obama leads by at least 10 points, and Romney is not likely to have coattails to help with the Senate or House.

[Balding_Eagle]

This may interest you:

According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2928053/posts

[OrangeHoof]

If you apply this to the 270towin electoral map, Obama has 237 EVs, Romney has 191 with 110 undecided (the nine states).

Obama needs 33, which he can get with Florida (29) plus any state, Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15), or he’ll need a minimum of three of the nine states.

Conversely, Romney needs 79 which will require him to win between five and eight of those states depending on which ones.

Tightening up the picture a bit, I think Obama will likely take Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4) to give him 247 but I think Romney has North Carolina (15) to get to 206 and I’m almost sure he will take Florida (29) which pushes him to 235.

That puts the whole election pretty much on Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) and Iowa (6). None of these five states should either candidate think is safe.

If Romney is running stronger than I think he is, it puts Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16) in play but they’ll just be gravy in an already decisive win.

[Reily]

“....being a shiftless bum with no work ethic....”

Doesn’t “.. shiftless bum ..” describe the voting majority in those states?

[Little Ray]

I’d go for the “sure thing” over the “Big Win” since the payout is the same. He needs to focus on the swing states he has the best chance of winning.