CNN: Obama 52% Romney 46%, but...

The Hill ^ | 9-10-2012 | Christian Heinze

[smoothsailing]

September 10, 2012

CNN: Obama 52% Romney 46%, but...

Christian Heinze

A new CNN poll of likely voters confirms a Barack Obama convention bounce, as he now leads Mitt Romney, 52%-46%.

But here's a very curious internal.

Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.

And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.

There's no doubt Obama got a convention bounce, but the independent number indicates a pretty severe oversample among Democrats in this poll.

[adorno]

...so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.

People who conduct polls and who want to show a lead for Obama, feel the need to account for the "voters" who can't be really polled, those being the dead and illegals. Those two faithful constituencies, tend to vote 100% for democrats, so, CNN is just accounting for them ahead of the real poll in November.

[Strategerist]

Even THE HILL is dissing it, lol.

The source name is very misleading; it's not the well known "The Hill" it's some random blogger calling his site "The Hill."

[CaptainK]

At this point in time wouldn’t it make sense that all polls were of likely voters? They have to be doing these less reliable polls to prop up Obama’s numbers.

[jwalsh07]

Romney +14 among Indies and Obama up by 6 at 52%. LOL, pollsters and journalists, like leftists in general, have a mutated shame gene.

[Strategerist]

Very curious...actually it does appear to be a site associated with a writer for “The Hill” and uses the “The Hill” logo but it’s not “The Hill” itself, though it links to “The Hill.”

[GeronL]

lol. I was wondering why it was still offering coverage of the GOP nomination

[italianquaker]

I think he received a bump per Ras. That being said it will be fleeting and stink is still stink when it is all said and done

[LS]

Look, how many polls have we seen where they admit the Indies are breaking for Romney big---anywhere from 10-15 points? And until just two days ago, all the pollsters admitted that there was an enthusiasm gap, which I think we will see return to pre-Dem Convention levels shortly.

There is simply no way, if both parties turn out their base, that you can lose the independents (about 20-25% of the total vote) and win. And there is absolutely no way you can lose the indies AND have a lower turnout factor than the Republicans, and win. It's just not mathematically possible.

I'll remind everyone that one reason we were so off in 2008 is that we were working on the 2004 Karl Rove principle that if the GOP base turned out, we'd win. Well, the base turned out, but 1/4 voted for Obama and ALL the indies voted for Obama. This time around Obama will lose 25% of the GOP who voted for him and 60% of the indies.

Whatever else all these goofy polls show, NONE has been able to reconcile these basic facts that the polls themselves report.

[Ouderkirk]

This poll is absolute BS. I don’t believe a word of it....any of it.

As Rush says...there isn’t a poll out there that means squat right now. This is PSYCH-OPS by the Communist News Network

CNN the most CORRUPT name in news.

[smoothsailing]

It's part of The Hill. Look at the link listings under blogs in the left hand column on the Homepage...http://thehill.com/

[smoothsailing]

lol. I was wondering why it was still offering coverage of the GOP nomination

Ha! Just noticed that, that's funny. :)

[X-spurt]

Logic would indicate being ahead in the polls would do just as you say, but human psychology is contrary in that some sheeple will only jump on the winning bandwagon, whether or not its fact. I am sure that is what the liberals are counting on, as all these slanted polls will be long forgotten by the time the election is done.

The dems are desperate to re-gin their 2008 voter's enthusiasm and these slant polls are aimed at them.

[ROTB]

Yeah.

1) There are more R than D right now.
2) They sampled more D than R.
3) Independents 54/40 for Romney

Moving the D convention to a place 1/4 the size tells me a lot by itself.

[ROTB]

Yeah.

1) There are more R than D right now.
2) They sampled more D than R.
3) Independents 54/40 for Romney
4) R is pumped to vote, D is not.

Moving the D convention to a place 1/4 the size tells me a lot by itself.

[ROTB]

No argument resonates with either of them.

***

Did you try ...

1) abortion
2) defense cuts

... eventually invite invasion?

[HotKat]

Not a Romney supporter. My gut feeling. It’s going to be a Romney landslide. Not thrilled, but ABO. Much like 2008 - I voted for Sarah; 2012 -I’m voting for Paul.

[meadsjn]

Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%.

Obama won Independents in 2008 by a margin of 8%.

That's a 22% shift from Dem 2008 to Republican 2012 among Independents.

In 2008, Independents were 29% of the electorate.

If just this little bit is close to accurate, Obama could lose all 57 states.

[Heff]

Sorry to say..... but if Romney doesn’t have a 5 to 8 point lead at this point, he’s likely going to loose this election. The electorate is too uninformed, and too easily influenced by the liberal media and the Hollyweird crowd. I hope I am proven wrong.

[Brilliant]

If the majority of Americans are conservative, then that means some conservatives are supporting Obama. Shame on them.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Good catch. They said 875 registered voters total, so this is literally a D-50.4% poll

My ass.