Posted on 09/10/2012 9:06:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Mitt Romney’s campaign just emailed out the following “Romney Polling Memo” to reporters:
________________________________________________
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster
RE: State of the Race
DATE: September 10, 2012
Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.
Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama’s allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves. This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, “It’s certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race…He’s going to have to make the case that we wouldn’t even be at 8 percent if it weren’t for him.”
Consider the following points:
The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and voters understand the future of our country is on the line. This may be lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states. In short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and once the preponderance of information about the President’s failed policies – combined with Mitt Romney’s vision to strengthen the middle class – are communicated, our nation will move in a different direction.
All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.
In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.
Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome. On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.
Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.
New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months.
Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC’s most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being “extremely” or “very” excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day. For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)
Romney’s Ground Game: During last weekend’s “Super Saturday,” we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on and on.
Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin-of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6.
I tend to agree with this assessment. Most of the polls are over sampling Dems by at least 8%. Obama is in the middle of his dead cat bounce. In a couple of weeks he will be back down again.
One thing everyone seems to be missing here is the 09-11 effect.
There is a 4-5 point “rally to the flag” effect during the anniversary of 09-11. Like it or not the fact O was in charge when the Seals got Bin Laden is going to help him in the polls for the next week or so.
I could care less about polls.
When the GOP candidate starts talking up Obamacare is when the voters should panic
Folks: What happened in 2010?
The RATS took a shellacking because we turned out and voted for the most conservative candidates who could win. Now in 2012 they are doing their very damndest to demoralize and discourage us from even voting! Why? Because of every silly made-up BS reason they can thing of, from “Romney’s not a conservative” to “Mormonism” to “It’s not about the economy”.
Just knock off all the anti-Romney crap and remember what works everytime it’s tried: Conservatism. We now have a choice between a moderate conservative and a proven, documented, card-carrying Liberal Marxist Socialist who probably wasn’t even born in this country!
Forget polls and whatever the MSM throws at us. Do what works, do what we did in 2010. Get out the vote, Obama is not doing a better job than he was then when we shellacked the hell out of his party. Now it’s his turn.
RE: One thing everyone seems to be missing here is the 09-11 effect.
This whole reason is so lame that I just don;t know what to make of it.
Are the America people so fickle that they would say they’d vote for Obama because it’s 9/11 and then change their mind a week later because 9/11 is over?
Same question applies to the so called post-convention “bounce”.
Did a few speeches in the DNC convention finally do the trick and make the American voter finally make up their minds?
It is a good assessment. This ‘surge’ is not only artificial but is manufactured. It would be actually nice to have people on our side to put this in perspective.
Stay focused, don’t let your enemies scare you and the MSM and pollsters scare you.
McCain had just pulled ahead when the silly run back to DC so I can vote to spend a bunch of taxpayer money unwisely vote (TARP) broke the back of his campaign. Romney had just pulled ahead for the first time when he started talking fondly about aspects of Obamacare. (Whether he meant them that way or not does not matter. All people are hearing is what is reported.) He keeps getting questions on ObamaRomneyCare because the media knows he is hurting himself with the line he is taking. He should say, “Repeal. If Americans want parts of it later, pass it legitimately.” There is a big difference and he cannot be painted to be supporting it.
The Bob Dole swan dive is coming up.
I hope you're wrong, but you make a very good point there.
Memo to the Mittens campaign:
take the gloves off and start attacking the jug-eared communist moron, you limp-wristed clueless pansies!
Exactly! Don't forget we have a true conservative on this ticket: Paul Ryan. Like in 2008 when I voted for Sarah Palin, I will be happily voting for Paul Ryan on 11/6/12.
AMEN!
Since Ronald Reagan we have been up against a rock and a hard place with our Republican candidates! this year is no different! The same people own both parties, so is it any wonder?
I’m dying to see a shred of that “conservative moderate” Romney record that you attribute, somewhere near earth.
2010 was energized by the conservatives because they were empowered by conscience to find like minded conservative candidates and together became a force of conscience willing to stand on conservative principles.
We struck the socialist GOP in the heart. Now they have struck back. .
Romney support is desperate, painful. Many support him against their own conscience, as the last earthly hope to avoid communism. It is impossible for such dread and horror to translate into 2010 love, energy, hope and trust.
LOL! What a fact. Thanks for the audible! Priceless.
What you need to keep in mind is many voters are not as politically aware as you and I. For them who they vote for, or even if they are going to vote, is very changeable. You really cannot look at a poll now and draw any conclusions. Carter lead Reagan comfortably in most between Sept 1st and Election day 1980
No, most Conservatives realize that 85% of something is way better then 100% of nothing
What we have around here is a loud clique of sour grapes whiners who think if they squeal loud enough they can punish the GOP for not nominating their candidate of choice.
It is pathetic childish and self defeating but very typical of the fringe “dogma uber alles” conservative purist around here who is not really interested in moving the political ball down the field. To rationalize their political cowardice and laziness they spend every election year screaming about the GOP not being perfect.
hmm...not sure if I agree here. 9/11 is not Bin Laden being offed, it’s GWB standing with a bullhorn alongside the firefighters. Besides, since when to Democrats care about 9/11 in a patriotic manner? They just want us all to forget, be nice to those who hate America and “Move On”. At best, I see it as a wash, depending on how hard the media spins for 0bama.
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