Posted on 09/09/2012 4:59:39 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
The Talk Shows
September 9th, 2012
Guests to be interviewed today on major television talk shows:
FOX NEWS SUNDAY (Fox Network): Glenn Hubbard, economic adviser to the Romney campaign; Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Mayor Mia Love of Saratoga Springs, Utah.
MEET THE PRESS (NBC): Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
FACE THE NATION (CBS): Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan; President Barack Obama; White House adviser David Plouffe.
THIS WEEK (ABC): Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan.
STATE OF THE UNION (CNN): Gov. Jerry Brown, D-Calif.; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Goolsby vs. Glen Hubbard on the economy on FOX.
Americans in labor force 63.5%.
Goolsbee - shouldn’t take one month’s report. If you look at the whole year, unemployment is down 1%. Some people are retiring, some are choosing to go to school. (I guess the fact that the percentage of Americans in the labor force is at its lowest point ever doesn’t matter ???)
Hubbard - most economists think fundamental tax reform that they’ve suggested will help stimulate the economy in a weak growth economy. (this guy needs more details in his presentation.)
Goolsbee - makes fun of Romney’s horse being a business. Wallace reminds him that obama said it wouldn’t be wise to raise taxes on the wealthy in a weak growth environment...we are in a worse economic environment now than when obama said that (jan, 2010). Goolsbee said it was because the unemployment rate was a full 2 points higher - that’s why the president said that. Wallace reminds Goolsbee the economy growth is even weaker today.
Hubbard says Romney is talking about tax reform not focussin on tax cuts. (??)
no president could have done better than Obama..”economists agree...”
*****
This is the same argument by which democrats keep getting elected to municipal positions as their cities deteriorate.
When the cities continue downward economically: No one could do it better. We [dems] really care, and we are doing the best that anyone could FOR YOU.
When a local government becomes run by a Republican administration, and the economic trend improves, the dems say: Anyone could have done what this administration is doing.
They NEVER take responsibility for any failure!
Uhhh.. not exactly.
Seems Jimmy Carter started the Community Reinvestment act in 1977 but it didn’t quite get the job done.
So in response to a law suit by obama on behalf of blacks in 95 Bubba started the ball rolling so that if banks didn’t lend to blacks and others they would pay a price.
Later on Barney Frank and Raines and others refined it even more so if you were alive and could sing your name you got a loan.
After all the govt. backed the banks and they paid the loans when the losers went bankrupt.
We all know how that worked out.
Seems David axelrot was slick enough to place the blame on us namely GW “since his dem congress had nothing at all to do with it” and we have never countered until now.
IT was bad enough that ozero did nada to solve the problem but if it turns out that the dems were to blame as well instead of GW,NOv. takes on a whole new look.
It is very sad. I cannot fathom the voting public that thinks obama deserved a bump from the program the DNC offered. The only positive spin I can put on it, is that the bump came from people who only watched Michelle and Clinton’s speeches and fell for them. I don’t know.
Exactly and once he is in the war on rinos can continue with Palin heading up that little job.
You’ll have to get Kabar to help you with this.
Cause the Democrats tell lies so much to try and make sense out of them is a waste of precious time.
I used to do payroll and do you know where they get the vast amount of their “on the payroll” and “off the payroll” from?
They get their data mostly from ADP, the great big outsource payroll processor.
Now I’ve used ADP plenty of times and yes, you mark an employee terminated when they leave and you add employees when they...eh, are hired.
The net of all this is the number net new jobs that is part of the jobs statistics and I really wonder how close it is.
But ADP is the country’s largest payroll processor and I’ll allow that the net job gain/loss in a given month is an indicator of how the jobs are going. As a sample size of the country it’s probably close to accurate.
I’ll never understand where they get this “dropped out of the job force number” from, though I know a whole lot of people that would meet that criteria.
Many of the constructions guys are working under the table. A lot of folks have applied for SS disability rather than to continue fighting younger and healthier for the few jobs available. This is just my anecdotal experience bear in mind. My nieces boyfriend, for example, has some kind of major pain problem and has had it for many years. I’m not clear on it but it’s a health issue he’s been battling for many years. When he lost his job he threw down the gauntlet and applied for SS, which he asserts he could have received many moons ago.
I know a few people who’ve fallen into this category...loss of a job impels them to finally apply for SS disability that they might have eschewed during an earlier time when jobs were plentiful.
These types would certainly qualify as folks who dropped out of the job market but I’ve no idea how they measure that number.
I believe it though.
So the Corvair was “Leading from behind”?
The Lamestream is hopping all over the place as they seem to think Obamer got a bump in the polls after last week’s convention.
Maybe he did.
So what?
It’ll die out, he’ll do something stupid.
He’s not going to win this election.
I really believe that.
georgie porgie shows once again that he is a gelding.
LLS
People collecting UI have to claim that they are actively ‘looking for work.’ When the benefit checks end, voila’ -— they are no longer ‘looking for work.’
Huge numbers of people have gotten to the end of their benefit period as each month of this “recovery” pass.
What is going on here is that 8.1% is closer to anything with a 7 in it which is what we will get just before November no matter what the real number is.Follow that?
Unemployment the way some calculate it is 11% and change the UC 6 about 15 1/2%, include everyone who looks for work, has dropped out, is underemployed and its 23.something%, nearly 1 in 4. But the DBM can't report that because it would be racist to say anything bad about the regime/dear leader so we get the pablum we get.
Well I’m glad you like my review.
Since you brought up the issue of OBama possibly winning this election, lookit....he just might.
I don’t think so but I’ve dealt with the possibility that he might.
I have a plan.
My plan is that I will quietly accept that my fellow Americans, assuming the election is fair and square and let’s assume this for now, want to keep tracking more towards socialism and the majority shall rule.
I will try to live the remainder of my life as happy as I can be, I will try to teach my granddaughter everything I know about making it on your own, about following your dream and your passion. I shall pray that the direction of this country will change every chance that I can.
But I’m prepared that OBamer might be my president for four more years though I’m not going to like it.
If I accept majority rule than I must accept the outcome of this upcoming election as the will of the American people.
Holy crap! That Daily Show website gave my Firefox fits. I got multiple script errors, it locked up several times for up to a minute, wouldn’t let me close the tab, etc. What kind of virus-laden website is Comedy Central?!!?
Sorry. I didn’t have a problem and no scrips came through that I know of. I block scrips to begin with and that may be the reason. No Script for Firefox has been a good blocker, so far. Let me know if it’s not.
Whereas any R bounce was immediately stepped on. Bounce, bounce, bounce....
Let's get to it, it's time to go after Obie. Obie's acceptance speech seemed as if he was throwing in the towel. Perhaps his internal numbers show he's toast. Most polls show Obie with a lead whereever you look and R/R should concede right now and save the trouble. Actually, most of the polls are using incorrect sampling ratios, and what looks like a small Obama lead usually is a larger Romney lead.
1) The American Economy is strictly private property, owned and operated by American citizens, who with their own money, blood, sweat, and tears cause it to grow, make profit and employ people.
And-
2) Taxation is nothing more than legally stealing money from the American people, the parasitic leaching of the lifeblood of the economy for whatever nefarious "public good"
I have a question for all these RAT-economists:
How does reducing this level of theft "blow a hole in the deficit" or "hurt the economy"? (lying bastards)
I agree and the polls have been worthless for years but we can’t afford to lose this one.
Mia Love on Fox - parents immigrated from Hataii with 10 bucks in their pockets - taught her to work hard, not take handouts.
Wallace asks what happens to people dependent on the programs she is suggesting be cut. Mia says her numbers are just a starting point for discussion. Price of college tuition has increased by 500 percent since the 80’s. Dem’s are calling her a hypocrite because she took advantage of student loans.
Wallace says Dem are accusing Repubs of waging war on women. Mia says under obama, women are worse off. 5.7 million of women out of work. federal govt should let us keep more of our own money - we can buy our own contraceptives. Says “war on women” is a distraction from dealing with the economy. (avoids talking about “choice” issues)
Wallace asks are there times you just need to raise taxes (property taxes increased in her city under her watch) Mia says they cut spending, tied property taxes to public safety only; city is doing quite well now.
She’s coming across quite well. Well spoken and quick on her feet.
There are plenty of events still in the offing over the next few months that will have an impact on the election. Obama must produce his plan for sequestration. He has already missed the deadline. Let's see where he is going to make some cuts to welfare and defense.
There will be a battle looming on raising the debt ceiling again--something that will bring the huge and rapidly growing national debt into focus once again.
The Reps in the House will no doubt propose legislation to prevent us from going over the fiscal cliff in January. This will raise the issue of taxes and Obamacare once again.
And then there are events beyond our control like an Israeli strike against Iran and the reaction it will cause in the region and globally. Gas prices will go thru the roof.
The EU is still in recession and the state of the Eurozone is still in flux. We will continue to feel the economic effects.
We still have scandals out there like Fast and Furious and security leaks. And who knows if there is an October surprise re Obama's personal narrative.
And finally, there are the four debates (3 Pres, 1 VP) that begin on October 3rd, before the next jobs report comes out, which should help Romney.
The big ad campaigns on both sides will go into hyperdrive over the next 8 weeks. Polls are going to flucuate. It is going to be a close election unless some sort of gamechanger emerges. I don't see Obama attracting the same level of support he received in 2008. That was his high point.
To calculate the unemployment rate for a particular area or region, you will need to know the number of unemployed workers and the total number of people in the labor force in the particular area (such as a state or country). In the United States, this data is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force refers to the number of people of working age and below retirement age who are actively participating in the work force or are actively seeking employment. Note that the total population of the area or region is irrelevant when calculating the unemployment rate.
Read more: How to Calculate Unemployment Rate | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_4621309_calculate-unemployment-rate.html#ixzz25ywL3oUi
What that all means in relation to your questions is:
1. Yes, a new job is a job that did not exist before. So if 368,000 people apply for unemployment in a week and 378,000 new jobs are created (people are hired who didn't work there before) that means a net increase of 10,000 jobs in the economy.
Of course, if a construction worker loses a $60,000 per year job and 2 people get $10/hr jobs asking if you want fries with that, that is a net addition of 1 new job in the work force.
The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has a large army of experts who scientifically calculate exactly what they don't know (to 3 or 4 decimal places) and they calculate several different definitions of "unemployment". The one we hear about most is U6, which uses a denominator of "work force" and a numerator of "workers" to calculate the percentage of work force working. The difference is the unemployment rate.
So if you have about 111,000,000 people working in America and the number goes up 96,000 in a month to 111,096,000, that is a net creation of jobs. BUT, if the number of people in the work force drops by 368,000 from 121,000,000 to 120,632,000, then the decrease in the denominator makes the percentage look better.
And the 368,000 people who no longer count as unemployed no longer count because their benefits have run out, so they cease to exist in the BLS calculation. Unlike Chicago voters after they die, the BLS considers people who drop out of the work force to be not in the work force.
Now, if the drop outs decide to start looking again, they get added back to the denominator. And how they get added back is based on some complicated rules the counters at BLS use to determine who is in the work force and who is just dabbling. To make it even worse, very little of what the BLS does is based on hard numbers. Mostly it is based on voluntary survey participation, random phone calls, whether or not Joe Biden saw his shadow this morning, and any number of scientific confounders to make the final number impossible to dispute or prove.
That's why the government workers who do this make so much money.
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